As the air cargo sector navigates the extended December peak, carriers are leveraging the heightened demand to raise contract rates for 2025. Dimerco, a leading logistics provider, has reported rate increases of approximately 10%, affecting both long-haul and intra-Asian routes. A forwarding source in Shanghai corroborated this, citing a notable $1.4/kg hike in blocked space agreements for Asia-to-Europe lanes, a level described as a “record over the past many years.”
Interestingly, Dimerco claims rates remain lower than in 2023, even with the ongoing peak, which has been driven by an uptick in non-ecommerce volumes. This surge, attributed to better planning by shippers, has kept cargo moving beyond the typical early December slowdown. “Starting mid-December, we’ve seen a significant uptick in cargo volumes, particularly for consumer electronics,” noted Dimerco in its outlook.
Unusual as it may seem, the peak is expected to stretch into late January, just before the Chinese New Year. Shippers appear to have bypassed the October-November ecommerce rush, a strategy that could indicate a shift in how capacity and costs are optimized heading into 2025.
Wenwen Zhang, an airfreight analyst at Xeneta, pointed to emerging factors influencing the market. “The AI wave will lift the stagnant B2B airfreight market but won’t match the impact of 2024’s Red Sea crisis or the rise of ecommerce,” Zhang stated. She also warned that shippers on less dynamic corridors could face risks if airlines reallocate capacity to meet Asia’s growing demand.
The prolonged peak is not without challenges. Some shippers are front-loading shipments to sidestep potential tariffs, creating a capacity crunch. Kathy Liu, VP of global sales and marketing at Dimerco, highlighted Taiwan’s role in this trend. Trade between China and Taiwan, fueled by semiconductor and consumer electronics production, has intensified. Parts are being shipped from China to Taiwan for assembly before heading to the U.S., mitigating potential tariff impacts.
Tight capacity on Taiwan-to-U.S. lanes is causing rate surges, with no available slots until late December. Korean Air’s routes from Tianjin to Chicago are fully booked through the month, and other carriers, like Japan Airlines, have canceled flights due to operational constraints, exacerbating the situation.
North China routes to Europe and the U.S. are similarly strained, with rates high but expected to ease post-New Year. Yet, unexpected cancellations—such as China Cargo Airlines suspending Shenzhen-to-Los Angeles flights—continue to disrupt schedules. All Nippon Airways has also canceled flights on the Guangzhou-to-Narita route for late December and early January, tightening capacity further.
The U.S. market, meanwhile, faces its own hurdles. A potential January port strike could compel shippers to opt for airfreight, intensifying competition. Qatar Airways has no plans to return freighters to LAX, limiting main-deck capacity and pushing up rates.
Looking beyond, Asia-Mexico trade appears poised for growth, though the impact of trade tariffs remains uncertain. Geopolitical events will undoubtedly shape airfreight trends in 2025. The introduction of Gemini networks, potential U.S. port strikes, and shifts in Red Sea shipping routes all loom large.
Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s chief airfreight officer, emphasized the unpredictable nature of geopolitics. “A major change in the geopolitical situation, such as the reopening of the Red Sea, could cause an acceleration in air cargo demand. Conversely, strikes and tariff changes could lead to disruption across the board,” he warned.
Despite the challenges, the air cargo industry is bracing for what could be a transformative year, with shippers and carriers alike navigating a landscape shaped by innovation, geopolitics, and shifting demand patterns.
Source: theloadstar
