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Market Calms After a Turbulent September
Airfreight spot rates from China to Europe have softened slightly in early October, falling around 4% over the past two weeks. The dip follows a 5.7% surge before China’s Golden Week holidays—a familiar seasonal pattern, though one that feels sharper this year. Even with the recent decline, rates remain 1.5% higher than mid-September, a sign that the corridor is still riding above its normal seasonal range.
For freight forwarders and shippers, it’s a market that feels more like a balancing act than a recovery. As one Shanghai-based logistics manager described it, “Every time we think rates will normalize, something shifts—capacity, politics, or production.”
Europe’s Flat Capacity Meets Steady Demand
The China-to-Europe trade lane continues to be a seller’s market. Capacity remains tight, partly due to European carriers retiring older freighters and delays in new aircraft deliveries. Many airlines have also pivoted to passenger-heavy schedules, leaving limited belly cargo space on key routes.
In some cases, European carriers have even suspended or reduced routes to China amid geopolitical tensions, further squeezing capacity. For forwarders scrambling to secure uplift, these route changes can mean the difference between meeting a production deadline—or missing it by days.
Interestingly, Prague has emerged as one of the most volatile destinations for spot rates. The Czech hub, often used as an alternative to Frankfurt or Amsterdam, reflects how fragmented the European inbound airfreight landscape has become. One operator put it plainly: “Prague is the canary in the coal mine—if rates move there, they’ll move everywhere else soon.”
The Shadow of Politics and Policy
Beyond aircraft and fuel, it’s politics that continues to shape the air cargo map. The latest U.S. tariff announcements have triggered a round of “front-loading,” with shippers rushing goods into Europe and North America ahead of potential new restrictions. That preemptive demand briefly lifted rates in late September, especially out of Shanghai and Shenzhen.
At the same time, trade policy uncertainty and a soft manufacturing outlook in Europe have tempered confidence. “Everyone’s hedging,” said one logistics analyst in Hong Kong. “No one wants to be caught with empty space or unfulfilled orders, so you get these mini rate spikes that fade fast.”
When the Ocean Gets Rough, Air Cargo Rises
The airfreight market’s resilience also owes much to the troubles at sea. Red Sea conflicts, sporadic port strikes, and vessel delays have kept supply chains unpredictable. For high-value or time-critical goods, shippers are again turning to air freight—not because it’s cheap, but because it’s certain.
This spillover effect from ocean freight has kept air rates elevated since January 2025, even as some traditional cargoes like consumer electronics have cooled. It’s a reminder that when one mode falters, another fills the gap—often at a premium.
A Volatile Road Ahead
Forecasts suggest demand growth of 4–6% for 2025, but optimism remains cautious. With capacity slow to return and geopolitics never far from the runway, volatility is likely the only constant. In the words of a European carrier executive: “This market isn’t predictable anymore—it’s just manageable.”
