Airfreight markets in 2025 have lost the momentum of last year’s double-digit expansion, with traffic growth slowing sharply and shippers redirecting flows toward more reliable and cost-effective container shipping, according to the latest Drewry Freight Loop.
The update, presented by Philip Damas and Tom Crabtree of Drewry Shipping Consultants, highlighted that while 2024 posted a robust 11.4% increase in global air cargo traffic, largely driven by Chinese e-commerce exports and Suez Canal disruptions, this year has been more volatile. In the first half of 2025, growth slowed to under 3% compared with the same period in 2024, signaling a significant market correction.
Trans-Pacific Declines, Europe Gains
The Trans-Pacific market between East Asia and North America, the largest global air cargo lane, has been hit hardest. Following new U.S. trade measures in May, airfreight volumes dropped 11% year-on-year, before easing to a 5% decline in June, according to IATA data.
By contrast, exporters are diverting flows to other regions. Traffic between the Far East and Europe is growing at double-digit levels, while intra-Far East trade has accelerated, reflecting China’s pivot toward partners seen as more stable than the United States. Vietnam has been a standout beneficiary, registering strong increases in both air and containerized exports, with India also gaining, though to a smaller extent.
Middle East-Europe Traffic Contracts
The Middle East–Europe air lane, which was the fastest growing in 2024 thanks to sea-air diversions caused by the Red Sea crisis, has now contracted every month in 2025. Freight forwarders report that many shippers have returned to all-sea options as containerized shipping becomes more dependable and more affordable.
At the same time, the transatlantic market—long considered stagnant—has shown unusual strength. European air exports to North America expanded nearly 11% in March and have continued to perform strongly throughout the year.
Rates Under Pressure
Airfreight pricing has softened but not dramatically. Fuel prices have generally declined in 2025, applying some downward pressure on surcharges. Rates, however, remain elevated compared with container shipping. From China to the United States, prices have fallen significantly, but the global average reduction is modest.
The relative pricing gap between sea and air is widening. Ocean freight rates, especially volatile earlier this year, spiked in May before falling back to much lower levels. Container shipping has therefore regained competitiveness, with some alliances reporting stronger on-time reliability than seen in years.
Capacity and Airspace Challenges
Capacity constraints continue to shape the market. Bellyhold space on East Asia–North America passenger flights is still 15% below pre-pandemic 2019 levels. Chinese airlines have not been allowed to fully restore their U.S. networks, while North American carriers remain unable to transit Russian airspace due to geopolitical restrictions.
These constraints mean airfreight remains a tool for reliability rather than pure speed. Shippers increasingly use it selectively—choosing air when schedules matter most but turning to ocean freight for cost-sensitive volumes.
Four Key Market Signals
According to Drewry’s Airfreight Insight, shippers should watch for:
- Opportunities in non-U.S. markets, where capacity is more available.
- A shifting pricing differential—ocean shipping offers stronger value as its rates fall faster than air.
- Reliability as airfreight’s main appeal, beyond transit speed.
- Improved container shipping performance, making ocean transport more attractive in late 2025.
As the report notes, container shipping currently provides better value than airfreight, with rate declines far steeper on the sea side and reliability steadily improving.
