DSV Bets on a Second Schenker: Kuehne+Nagel Plays the Percentages in the AI Race

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DSV and Kuehne+Nagel, the two largest freight forwarders by revenue, are pursuing sharply different artificial intelligence strategies. One is swinging for a decade-scale transformation. The other is counting on measured, near-term productivity gains.

At its Capital Markets Day on 12 May, DSV unveiled a target to generate roughly DKK 9 billion (€1.2 billion) in productivity value by 2030 through AI, technology, network optimisation and operational improvements. The Danish group described the goal as a “second productivity target of similar size” to the synergies it expects from integrating DB Schenker. That framing signals a belief that running the enlarged network smarter can yield returns comparable to the largest acquisition in the industry’s history.

Kuehne+Nagel took a different route. During its second-quarter earnings call on 23 July, Chief AI and Innovation Officer Alireza Nemati and CFO Markus Blanka-Graff laid out a quantified, short-term plan. The Swiss forwarder identified just over 25,000 white-collar full-time equivalents as its addressable workforce. That cohort represents roughly CHF 1.7 billion in staff costs, or about 35 percent of total staff cost. The company assumes at least a 5 percent productivity gain across that base. The expected result: CHF 100 million to CHF 150 million in annualised EBIT by the end of 2027.

The gap in ambition is as much about time horizon as it is about money.

DSV’s DKK 9 billion target stretches to 2030. The company has not tied specific staffing cuts to that figure. Instead, it has pointed to the integration of more than 60 countries and the elimination of over 8,000 white-collar positions since the Schenker deal closed as evidence that it can execute large-scale change. The AI productivity goal sits alongside those integration efforts, suggesting the next wave of value will come from software and process rather than consolidation alone.

Kuehne+Nagel, by contrast, has anchored its AI programme to a hard deadline. Nemati said material benefits would emerge in 2027, with “low-hanging fruits” in already-standardised processes landing first and fuller-scale gains building in the second half of that year. The CHF 100 million to CHF 150 million estimate is explicitly gross, meaning it does not net out potential increases in AI service costs. The company said it will track the figure against operational KPIs.

Both companies are already deploying AI in customer-facing and back-office functions.

Kuehne+Nagel reported that AI-powered pricing tools now deliver air freight quotes twice as fast as before. Sea bookings through its myKN platform have dropped from minutes to seconds. Bespoke EDI and API connections are now completed in less than a day. The company also said it prefers to grow volume with existing staff rather than simply reduce headcount, using AI to absorb more business without expanding the cost base.

DSV has been less specific about individual AI use cases tied to the DKK 9 billion target. Its public disclosures have focused on the scale of the Schenker integration and the parallel productivity ambition. The message is that AI is not a side project but a strategic pillar on par with the merger itself.

The divergence reflects broader uncertainty about how quickly AI can reshape freight forwarding. DSV is treating the technology as a transformational, multi-year value driver. Kuehne+Nagel is treating it as a measurable operational lever with a near-term payout.

For customers, the difference may show up in pricing and service speed. For investors, it is a question of which model delivers returns first. For competitors, it sets two benchmarks to measure against: one defined by scale and patience, the other by precision and a 2027 deadline.