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When Contracts Turn Into Empty Promises
Imagine signing a long-term lease for an apartment you never move into. That, in a nutshell, is what happens in freight procurement with so-called ghost lanes. MIT researchers have been studying this hidden problem, where shippers contract lanes with carriers that never actually get used.
Defining the Ghost Lane
Ghost lanes come in two main forms. A full ghost lane is one where no carrier gets any business at all, while a partial ghost lane means at least one contracted carrier never sees a shipment. MIT FreightLab’s work shows these cases are surprisingly common in the U.S. trucking and freight market every year.
Angela Acocella, a researcher with MIT’s FreightLab, notes that “companies often sign contracts to secure capacity, but the reality is that many of those lanes never move freight.”
Why It Happens
Uncertainty sits at the core of the problem. New distribution centers may open later than expected, or demand forecasts fall short. Shippers also hedge their bets by contracting multiple carriers for the same route, but when business gets allocated, some are left with nothing.
In the maritime world, blank sailings—scheduled voyages that carriers cancel in response to weak demand—have a similar effect. They leave capacity planned on paper but never materialize in practice, amplifying the same risks shippers face with ghost lanes.
Costs Carriers Don’t Forget
For carriers, the impact can feel like chasing a phantom. When a lane never delivers business, trust erodes. Some carriers may hesitate to bid on future contracts or adjust their prices upward to cover the perceived risk.
The studies argue this doesn’t just harm individual deals—it can ripple through the industry by inflating freight costs more broadly. Shippers, meanwhile, face hidden inefficiencies and the potential loss of long-term partnerships with carriers who feel burned by the experience.
Tools for the Living, Not the Ghosts
What can be done? MIT’s recommendations are practical: analyze lane characteristics, use historical data, and estimate the likelihood of a lane going ghost before committing to contracts. The goal is to move away from guesswork and towards smarter procurement.
David Correll of MIT explains it plainly: “If you know a lane is high-risk, maybe don’t over-commit. Or at least, plan accordingly so you’re not wasting time and relationships.”
Why Now Matters
This research resonates even more in a volatile market. Tariff disputes, global disruptions, or even seasonal demand drops all heighten the risk of ghost lanes and blank sailings. For logistics planners, keeping an eye on contract utilization isn’t just about efficiency—it’s about stability when markets are unpredictable.
