Hormuz Blockade and 67% Bunker Spike Fail to Break MPP Carrier Confidence as Sentiment Index Holds at 53.3

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The multipurpose and heavy lift shipping sector is absorbing a double blow from the Strait of Hormuz blockade and a 67% surge in bunker fuel costs, yet industry sentiment has barely moved, according to the latest quarterly survey by One World Shipbrokers.

The Q2 2026 edition of the Market Sentiment Index (MSI), published by One World and authored by Justin Archard, registered a reading of 53.3, virtually unchanged from the prior quarter. The result defied expectations of a downturn following the outbreak of military conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran in late February, which shut down one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints and sent fuel prices sharply higher.

The conflict, which began on February 28, resulted in a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Several MPP vessels remain stranded inside the Persian Gulf with no clear timeline for release.

A U.S. initiative branded “Project Freedom” initially suggested armed naval escorts for outbound convoys. According to the MSI report, the program has so far amounted to little more than a telephone line offering exit route guidance, falling short of the security guarantees most shipowners would require to risk a transit. The deadlock therefore persists.

Because most carriers had already been avoiding the Red Sea and Suez Canal route since 2024 due to Houthi related risks, the direct impact of losing Persian Gulf access on the global MPP fleet has been smaller than on the tanker and bulk sectors. However, the redistribution of tonnage onto longer routes via the Cape of Good Hope and across the Pacific has thinned vessel supply in Asia, firmed freight rates, and extended fleet cover periods in that region.

Suez Canal transits fell 3% in Q1 2026 compared with the prior quarter, according to the Suez Canal Authority, and remain 52% below the post pandemic peak recorded in mid 2022. On the opposite side of the globe, the Panama Canal Authority reported that auction slot premiums have surged more than threefold as carriers of time sensitive cargoes seek schedule stability away from Middle Eastern chokepoints.

The fuel cost spike has proven to be the sharper concern for operators. Very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) at Singapore stood at $473 per metric ton on February 2. Within six weeks it peaked at $1,120 per metric ton, a rise of 137%. After a temporary dip to $680 during a brief ceasefire, prices climbed again to $792 at the time of the report’s publication, representing a 67% increase over pre conflict levels.

With bunker markets having been stable for an extended period before the war, few carriers had hedged their fuel exposure. The survey asked 28 carriers to rate the impact of the bunker increase on shippers’ willingness to fix cargoes, on a scale from one to ten. The mean response from the 26 who replied was 7.2, signaling a very high drag on booking activity.

Carriers reported difficult negotiations with shippers, including sharp bunker adjustment factor implementations, postponements of previously committed shipments, and a broader wait and see posture across the market. One European operator noted that many shippers are withholding cargoes in the hope that freight costs will return to what they consider reasonable levels, calling the strategy a gamble given the unpredictable trajectory of fuel prices.

Asian carriers reported the greatest impact from shipper hesitancy, compounded by the loss of Middle East export volumes. Yet the redeployment of vessels away from the now inaccessible Far East to Arabian Gulf and Persian Gulf strings toward Europe and North America has tightened spot availability in Asia and pushed freight rates higher. Some operators reported tonnage covered six or more weeks in advance.

The Toepfer Multipurpose Shipping Index (TMI) continued to track sideways above US$12,000 per day, reinforcing the picture of stable underlying market fundamentals. Newbuilding orders are set to lift MPP fleet deadweight by a modest average of 1.3% per year over the next five years, according to the Journal of Commerce, with most new vessels tied to long term commitments. The average fleet age remains close to 17 years, making replacement tonnage both expected and necessary.

Looking further ahead, carriers expressed cautious optimism. The 12-month outlook remains supported by expectations that energy independence policies worldwide will unlock new infrastructure and power generation projects requiring heavy lift and project cargo services. The one-year forecast provided by carriers 12 months ago points to a slightly higher MSI of 53.7 for the next edition.