Hormuz Deal Signed, But 483 Trapped Vessels and Mines Keep Shipping Frozen as Owners Demand Safe Corridors First

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DUBAI / LONDON, June 18, 2026 — The United States and Iran have formally signed a ceasefire memorandum that commits both sides to reopening the Strait of Hormuz to toll-free commercial traffic, but as of Wednesday evening not a single outbound commercial vessel had transited the chokepoint, leaving roughly 483 ships stranded in the Arabian Gulf and global freight markets in a holding pattern.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed the memorandum of understanding on Wednesday night. Known as the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, the accord was brokered by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who confirmed both presidents signed electronically on June 17. A commemorative ceremony is scheduled for Friday, June 19 in Geneva, after which formal technical negotiations will begin.

The deal calls for a permanent ceasefire, the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade, the release of frozen Iranian assets, and sanctions waivers covering oil exports, banking, and shipping. A 60-day window, extendable by mutual consent, has been set for negotiating a comprehensive final agreement on Iran’s nuclear program.

Despite the political breakthrough, as of late evening on June 18 outbound commercial maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained in a state of complete operational paralysis, with zero commercial vessels transiting outbound and none having successfully exited the strait in the preceding five days.

The primary obstacle is mines. Mine clearance operations involving conventional minesweepers and underwater drones could continue for 40 to 50 days before insurance, shipping, or oil companies feel confident enough to sail through. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on June 2 that Iran had mined large segments of international waters in the strait. A June 11 note from the German navy, citing intelligence from U.S. and British forces, indicated that mines were located in four distinct areas, though these claims have not been independently verified.

There were 483 vessels effectively trapped in the Arabian Gulf, of which about 220 are tankers, according to the latest Kpler data. Before the war, weekly Strait of Hormuz cargo vessel transits ran at roughly 650 to 770 vessels, equivalent to around 90 to 110 transits per day across both directions.

Shipowners and insurers have welcomed the deal but are demanding operational evidence before committing vessels.

A spokesperson for the Japanese Shipowners’ Association said the group welcomed the peace agreement but wanted to “wait a little longer for more concrete information” ahead of the formal signing on June 19. “Given the situation, we cannot simply say, ‘Right then, let’s go’ based on news of the agreement alone,” the spokesperson said.

Hapag-Lloyd, the German container carrier, said it hoped all remaining vessels would be able to cross the Strait of Hormuz within the week, noting that four of its ships were stuck in the Arabian Gulf.

War risk premiums for Hormuz transits surged to between 1 and 5 percent of hull value, representing a cost of approximately $5 million for a $100 million tanker, which is 20 to 25 times pre-conflict rates. Protection and indemnity clubs cancelled Gulf and Hormuz coverage effective March 5, 2026.

Analysts at Sentosa Ship Brokers said in a note: “The market is clearly pricing in a return to business as usual, but after months of disruption, owners and charterers alike will likely remain cautious until ships are consistently moving freely through Hormuz once again.”

Industry executives expect a staged recovery rather than an immediate return to normal operations.

“There is no precedent for restarting Hormuz after a disruption of this nature,” one senior industry specialist said. “A cautious working assumption would be a gradual ramp-up rather than an immediate return to 100-plus daily transits.”

Maersk and MSC, two of the world’s largest container lines, have indicated that full service restoration to pre-conflict schedules will require six to eight weeks following the initial reopening.

The phased reopening means initial transit capacity will likely be constrained to escorted convoys rather than free navigation, requiring shippers to coordinate departure windows with naval authorities and potentially adding 24 to 48 hours to voyage planning compared to pre-conflict operations.

Oil prices have already moved sharply on the news. Brent crude dropped to below $80 per barrel, and Goldman Sachs reduced its Brent forecast to $80 per barrel for the fourth quarter of 2026, from $90 previously, and to $75 for the 2027 average.

The UK government has pledged active support for restoring safe passage. UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer described the deal as a “hugely significant moment,” saying it was “vital that all parties seize this opportunity to secure stability in the region and restore freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.”

Before traffic can return to normal, naval forces need to certify safe transit corridors. War risk insurers must then reinstate coverage, without which vessels will not move. Authorities in Oman, the UAE, and Iran will also need to coordinate shipping lanes, convoy systems, or transit windows. How quickly those layers of assurance can be built will determine whether the Hormuz breakthrough delivers relief for global supply chains within weeks or stretches into autumn.