The maritime and logistics sectors, encompassing breakbulk, project freight, cargo, and logistics, are navigating a period of uncertainty driven by a range of macroeconomic factors. Industry participants have been closely watching trends such as rejection rates, freight volumes, and fluctuating rates across the dry van, reefer, and flatbed markets, as detailed in the August 2024 Logistics Market Update.
Stability in Tender Rejections But Rising Year-Over-Year Gap
The Outbound Tender Reject Index (OTRI), a critical indicator in freight markets, has exhibited stability recently. However, a closer look reveals that while rejections have dipped slightly, down 0.09% to 4.49%, there is a notable year-over-year gap widening. Rejections are now 1.11% higher than at the same point last year and 0.64% above 2019 levels.
The growing rejection rate signals increased difficulty for shippers in securing capacity, particularly for urgent or time-sensitive shipments. This tightening of available capacity can drive up shipping costs for businesses. While this might seem like a minor blip, it’s part of a broader trend showing that the market, although appearing stable on the surface, is getting more challenging for shippers.
Residential and Agricultural Slump Weigh on Demand
One of the key factors impacting freight markets has been the slowdown in the residential construction sector. With single-family home sales continuing to drag, the demand for essential building materials like lumber and drywall has dwindled. This is translating into reduced freight volumes, especially for heavy trucks involved in transporting these goods. For the trucking industry, this means no immediate boost is expected from the construction sector, which historically provides significant freight demand.
In the agricultural space, low commodity prices, particularly for corn and soybeans, have led to decreased profitability for farmers, impacting their demand for farm equipment and, consequently, related freight volumes. Major agricultural players like John Deere have already responded by laying off workers. The slump in agriculture is compounded by softness in the automotive and energy sectors. For instance, oil and gas drilling activities have declined 14% year-over-year, putting additional pressure on freight volumes tied to this sector.
A Bull Market for Truckload Delayed Until 2025?
Capital investment in key sectors has remained stagnant, further pushing the recovery of the truckload market to mid-2025. While the industry was hoping for a rebound sooner, economic headwinds, including high interest rates, continue to push this recovery out of reach. It’s not just the trucking industry that’s waiting on better days—any improvement in the broader logistics market is tied to a potential economic turnaround and possible rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Short Haul Freight Provides a Silver Lining
Despite the downturn, there are bright spots. Short haul freight, defined as shipments under 100 miles, has seen a nearly 25% year-over-year surge. While the first half of August typically experiences a lull in freight volumes, the latter half of the month has seen a pickup, driven largely by this increase in short haul freight. This shows that while long haul freight may be struggling, certain sectors of the logistics market remain resilient.
Consumer spending patterns also provide context for the fluctuations in freight volumes. According to recent data, consumer spending has dropped 1.7% year-over-year, with categories like furniture, home improvement, and entertainment dragging down the overall figures. As consumer demand shifts, so too does the demand for freight services, highlighting the intertwined nature of consumer behavior and the logistics industry.
Mode-Specific Insights: Dry Van and Reefer Markets
The dry van market, traditionally one of the most reliable segments of the trucking industry, continues to face challenges. Tender volumes for dry van shipments have been on a downward trajectory since early June, with a 1.8% drop in the past week alone. The van market has now entered negative territory on a year-over-year basis.
The reefer (refrigerated) market, while also showing signs of strain, has maintained some positive momentum. Despite a 0.92% decline over the past week, reefer volumes are still up 1.35% year-over-year. A significant factor driving reefer freight demand has been the tight capacity, with rejection rates consistently averaging above 8% since June. Spot rates in the refrigerated market have climbed by 13% since the end of April, suggesting that carriers are finding opportunities in this niche.
Looking Ahead: Potential for Rejection Rate Surge Around Labor Day
As August nears its end, many in the industry are bracing for the possibility of increased rejection rates around the Labor Day holiday. Historically, rejection rates tend to surge around major holidays, as carriers become more selective with the freight they accept. This surge could lead to higher spot rates, offering some relief to carriers that have been struggling with relatively low rates throughout much of.
However, any potential increase in rates is likely to be short-lived unless there is a broader recovery in freight demand. The overall market continues to be marked by volatility, with the delicate balance between supply and capacity being a key concern for both carriers and shippers.
source: spotinc