NYK research highlights geopolitical risks to shipping markets and subsea infrastructure

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NYK Line has presented new research warning that increasing geopolitical fragmentation could make the global shipping market less efficient by disrupting the relationship between shipowners and cargo owners.

The findings were presented by Koichiro Hayashi, principal analyst at the NYK Research Group, during the International Association of Maritime Economists conference held in Singapore. The research was carried out in collaboration with the Shibasaki Laboratory at the University of Tokyo’s Graduate School of Engineering.

The study examined what could happen if political divisions increasingly shape international shipping. According to the researchers, a fragmented market could make it harder for shipowners and cargo owners to find suitable business partners, reducing the efficiency that has traditionally supported global maritime trade.

Rather than focusing on individual trade routes or shipping companies, the research explored the broader economic effects of geopolitical divisions. The presentation also prompted discussion among conference participants, particularly on the assumptions behind the economic model used to assess future market behaviour.

The debate reflected growing industry interest in understanding how political developments may influence commercial shipping decisions in the years ahead.

Hayashi also delivered a separate presentation examining damage to subsea cables and pipelines that may be linked to suspicious vessel activity.

The research explored how incidents affecting critical underwater infrastructure could extend beyond energy and telecommunications, potentially influencing shipping operations and wider maritime markets.

According to the presentation, one of the industry’s challenges is developing a common understanding of what should be classified as suspicious vessel behaviour. Without shared definitions, identifying potential threats and coordinating responses across jurisdictions may remain difficult.

The issue has gained greater attention in recent years as governments and industry organisations have increased monitoring of subsea infrastructure following several high profile incidents involving damaged cables in different regions.

Participants from East Asia and Europe responded positively to both presentations, with many highlighting the growing relevance of geopolitical risk within maritime economics and shipping operations.

The discussions demonstrated how research into shipping market behaviour is expanding beyond traditional topics such as freight demand and fleet capacity to include geopolitical developments, infrastructure resilience, and operational security.

For shipowners, cargo interests, and policymakers, these issues are becoming increasingly interconnected. As political tensions influence trade patterns and concerns over critical infrastructure continue to grow, understanding how these factors interact may become an increasingly important part of long term shipping strategy.