Global trade and logistics are entering a turbulent phase as the latest OECD Economic Outlook Interim Report warns of slowing growth, persistent inflation, and the heavy toll of U.S. tariffs on global supply chains.
The September 2025 report, titled Finding the Right Balance in Uncertain Times, highlights that global GDP growth, while resilient in early 2025, is projected to ease from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025, and further to 2.9% in 2026. The slowdown is driven by higher tariffs, softer labour markets, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty.
Tariffs at Historic Highs
Since May, United States tariffs on imports from nearly all countries have surged, reaching an effective rate of 19.5% by the end of August — the highest level since the mid-1930s. While some companies initially absorbed the costs through reduced margins, the impact is now filtering through to consumer prices and trade flows.
The OECD notes that tariff front-loading temporarily boosted industrial production and trade earlier in the year as importers rushed to beat higher duties. That momentum is now fading, leaving shippers, freight forwarders, and project cargo operators bracing for weaker volumes in the months ahead.
For logistics professionals, the tariff environment is reshaping shipping strategies. Project freight firms that depend on predictable schedules and long-term planning are already reporting higher costs, rerouted cargo flows, and increased reliance on alternative sourcing hubs.
United States, China, and Europe Face Slowdowns
The United States economy is expected to decelerate sharply, from 2.8% growth in 2024 to 1.8% in 2025, and just 1.5% in 2026. Weaker immigration flows and planned cuts to the federal workforce compound the effects of higher tariffs.
China, another key driver of global logistics, will see growth decline from 4.9% in 2025 to 4.4% in 2026. The report cites fading fiscal support and reduced demand following earlier front-loaded shipments.
In the euro area, growth remains modest but steadier, slowing from 1.2% in 2025 to 1.0% in 2026. While trade frictions and geopolitical risks weigh on exports, stronger public investment and looser credit conditions provide some offset. For European ports and breakbulk operators, this mixed picture reflects both risk and opportunity — declining volumes on some routes but stronger domestic infrastructure spending.
Inflation Still a Concern
Global inflation continues to ease but remains uneven. Headline inflation across G20 economies is projected to drop from 3.4% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026. Yet, core inflation in advanced economies shows little movement, declining only from 2.6% to 2.5%.
For transport and logistics, higher food and services prices keep operational costs elevated. Shipping companies are dealing with increased wage pressures in tight labour markets, even as demand signals weaken. The OECD warns that inflationary pressures could resurface if tariff hikes expand further or supply shocks re-emerge.
Implications for Global Shipping and Logistics
The maritime and project cargo sectors are particularly sensitive to trade disruptions. With tariffs at historic highs, shipping demand patterns are shifting:
- Breakbulk and heavy-lift operators face uncertainty on project timelines as clients reassess budgets.
- Container lines are adjusting capacity as front-loaded volumes drop.
- Ports and terminals are adapting to volatile throughput, with some hubs seeing congestion while others report declining calls.
Financial stability also remains a concern. The OECD points to potential risks from asset repricing, including volatile crypto-markets, which could spill over into trade finance and logistics investment.
Amid the headwinds, the report notes possible upsides: easing trade restrictions or faster adoption of artificial intelligence could stabilize growth and enhance supply chain efficiency. For now, however, logistics professionals are navigating an environment where tariffs, costs, and uncertainty are the defining variables.
