By Peter Bouwhuis
If you thought shipping and logistics were already complicated, buckle up—because this year is going to be a rough ride. Between tariffs, skyrocketing freight rates, and new vessel fees, the industry is staring down a perfect storm.
Let’s start with the big one—tariffs. The Trump administration is doubling down on its trade stance, reinstating and increasing tariffs on a range of goods. On top of that, ocean carriers are looking to push contract rates up by 20–30%. And as if that wasn’t enough, a new $1.5 million fee on Chinese-built vessels is being thrown into the mix. All of this is going to hit the industry hard, and not in a good way.
A Cost Spiral That Hits Everyone
If you’re in the business of moving cargo, get ready for rising costs across the board. Higher freight rates mean shippers will have to absorb or pass on the extra expenses, making everything from raw materials to finished products more expensive. Supply chains are already strained, and this is just adding fuel to the fire.
Some companies are looking at alternatives, like shifting sourcing away from China to other Asian countries or even bringing production closer to home. But let’s be real—most products still rely on foreign components, and that’s not going to change overnight. Even nearshoring to Mexico won’t be the magic solution some hope for, because guess what? Those goods will still be hit with tariffs when they cross the U.S. border. The administration wants foreign companies to invest in the U.S., but that’s not going to fix the fact that global supply chains are deeply interconnected.
Supply Chains in Turmoil
We’re already seeing changes in how cargo moves. West Coast ports, traditionally the main entry points for Asian imports, could see shifts in volume as companies look for ways to mitigate costs. Gulf and East Coast ports might see a boost, but that comes with its own challenges—different infrastructure, longer transit times, and shifting trucking demands.
For logistics providers, it’s all about survival. The big players will likely negotiate better rates, but smaller freight forwarders and NVOCCs? They’re going to feel the squeeze. Some will adapt, finding niche markets or specialized services, while others may struggle to stay afloat.
What Happens Next?
There’s no easy fix here. The reality is that these policies are going to drive up costs, disrupt supply chains, and put pressure on businesses across the board. Companies that can rethink their logistics strategies, secure favorable contracts, and find creative workarounds will have an edge.
But one thing is clear—this isn’t just another industry shake-up. It’s a major shift in how global trade operates, and everyone in logistics needs to stay ahead of the curve. One wrong move, and you could find yourself on the losing side of this economic tug-of-war.
