Opinion | The Strait of Hormuz and the Baltic Sea: Two Names That Should Keep Every Logistics Professional Awake at Night

Estimated reading time: 3 minutes

By: Peter Bouwhuis

You know that feeling when you are driving on a highway and suddenly see brake lights flashing up ahead? That split second where your heart skips a beat and you start calculating your options? That is exactly what the global supply chain is experiencing right now, except the brake lights are flashing across multiple continents simultaneously.

The Strait of Hormuz is once again a flashpoint. After a ceasefire between the United States and Iran collapsed, we are now watching a ninth consecutive day of strikes. Iranian forces are hitting U.S. bases in Jordan and Kuwait, while U.S. Central Command is launching waves of strikes aimed at degrading Iran’s ability to attack commercial vessels. Two oil tankers have reportedly exploded and been immobilized. Oil prices have already pushed past $90 a barrel. This is not theoretical disruption. This is the jugular of global energy supply being squeezed in real time.

And then there is Ukraine. Moscow just launched one of its largest ballistic missile attacks, while Kyiv is now targeting logistics hubs belonging to Russia’s largest online retailer. When a war starts targeting e-commerce fulfillment networks, we have crossed into territory where every supply chain manager needs to pay attention. A prominent dissident warned that Vladimir Putin is more likely to escalate, possibly even into the Baltics, than seek peace. “Putin always escalated when he felt he was in trouble.” That quote should send a chill down the spine of anyone routing freight through Northern Europe.

What does this mean for us? It means the balancing act we have always performed, adjusting cost levels, service levels, and performance to get goods to their destination, is now being performed on a tightrope during a hurricane. The level of unpredictability is unprecedented. We are not just managing delays anymore. We are managing existential risk to trade corridors that have been stable for decades.

I have been in this industry long enough to know that logistics professionals are resilient. We adapt. We find alternatives. But how many alternatives exist when the Strait of Hormuz becomes a war zone? When the Baltic Sea faces potential militarization? These are not back-up routes we can simply reroute around. These are arteries. Cut them, and the whole body goes into shock.

The American defense secretary said the Iranian attack that killed two U.S. soldiers in Jordan “only stiffens our resolve.” That is admirable military rhetoric, but for those of us moving goods across borders, resolve does not clear a port. Resolve does not reopen a strait. Resolve does not bring insurance premiums back down or guarantee that your container ship will not be caught in the crossfire of a drone swarm.

We need to be honest with ourselves. The world has never been this unpredictable. And the supply chain, which so many people take for granted as an invisible utility, is now one of the most exposed systems on Earth. Every logistics leader I speak to right now is asking the same question: how do we plan for a future where the map itself is being redrawn by missiles?

This is not a drill. This is the new normal. And we had better get used to adjusting on the fly, because the only thing that seems certain right now is that nothing is certain at all.