The latest Market Sentiment Index (MSI) for the multipurpose (MPP) and breakbulk shipping sector reveals a slight dip in overall optimism, slipping from 54.3 to 53.3, as global instability and political risk cloud investment confidence.
The MSI, now in its 17th edition, gauges the sentiment of key carriers across the MPP and breakbulk landscape. While the index remains above the neutral 50 mark, indicating generally positive outlooks, the marginal drop underscores growing caution among operators. According to the report, the current climate is dominated by a single, powerful theme: uncertainty.
At the time of polling, former President Donald Trump had announced sweeping new tariffs—the most punitive seen globally—which were soon partially walked back after severe market backlash. Though many MPP carriers have since learned they’ll be exempt from the U.S. Trade Representative’s charges on Chinese-built vessels, the whiplash of these policy swings has already sent shockwaves through the industry.
At the JOC Breakbulk Conference in New Orleans, Mark Szakonyi of S&P Global revealed data showing a dramatic 40% collapse in trans-Pacific cargo volumes into North America for April, with May expected to fare no better. This came on the heels of frontloaded inventories in Q1 and amid wider concerns that U.S. consumers will ultimately foot the bill for the trade disruptions.
The MSI’s Operational Index—focused on short-term expectations—has now posted declines in two consecutive editions, signaling hesitancy around near-term activity. In contrast, the Future Index, looking 6 to 12 months ahead, remains relatively strong. This divergence suggests that while current operations are being challenged, carriers still hold onto longer-term optimism.
But challenges abound. From offshore wind projects like Empire Wind 1 being shelved, to geopolitical stalemates in Gaza and Ukraine, the outlook remains foggy. Even as OPEC+ announced plans to boost oil supply in June, prices are drifting dangerously close to disincentive levels for developers, potentially stalling new project final investment decisions (FIDs).
Regional divergence in sentiment continues. Carriers in the Americas have seen the sharpest declines, reflecting the region’s heightened sensitivity to policy shifts. Asian carriers, while also noting short-term softness, project more robust confidence moving into 2026, backed by resilient manufacturing and energy infrastructure demand. European sentiment also turned sharply negative, with 72% of carriers polling lower compared to 64% higher in the previous edition.
Fleet dynamics are also shifting. Although supply is slightly ahead of demand in the short and medium term, demolitions remain low, and secondhand tonnage—especially high-lift capacity vessels—continues to attract attention. The Toepfer Multipurpose Index (TMI) in April edged up slightly, reflecting a stable, if cautious, chartering environment.
Meanwhile, at the JOC Breakbulk event, a new index was launched aimed at capturing sentiment from the shipper’s perspective. Led by Susan Oatway and backed by S&P Global, the initiative aims to complement the MSI by adding insight into cargo availability and flow. It marks a notable move toward more transparency in a sector still considered relatively opaque compared to other shipping markets.
With full tariff implementation looming, and broader questions hanging over global trade stability, MPP operators find themselves navigating one of the most politically charged freight environments in recent memory.
Source: oneworld
