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Commercial shipping continues through the Strait of Hormuz following Israel’s military strike on Iran, but maritime security experts warn that increasing caution by shipowners may act as a de facto slowdown—or worse, a closure—in the days ahead.
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy and container trade, remains operational as of this weekend. However, escalating geopolitical tensions following missile exchanges between Iran and Israel are raising serious concerns across the maritime industry.
Jakob Larsen, Chief Safety & Security Officer at the Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO), said the organization is receiving a rising number of reports from shipowners avoiding the Red Sea and Persian Gulf, citing safety concerns.
“We’re seeing owners acting with heightened caution,” said Larsen. “This isn’t just about military action. It’s about perception. Perception drives routing decisions, and perception right now is tense.”
The Strait—between 55 and 95 kilometers wide—facilitates the passage of approximately 20 million barrels of oil and oil products daily. That’s nearly 20% of the global oil trade, making the corridor one of the most strategically significant in the world.
According to MarineTraffic, the Strait of Hormuz has handled 34% of all seaborne oil traded globally so far this year. Though a full closure seems unlikely due to the severe economic implications for Iran itself, even minor disruptions can have major effects on global supply chains.
Crude oil prices spiked on Friday following Iran’s retaliatory missile launches and its refusal to attend nuclear negotiations with the U.S. originally scheduled for this weekend.
While the global spotlight is on oil, containerized cargo is also at risk. Transshipment hubs like Jebel Ali and Khor Fakkan in the United Arab Emirates serve as gateways to Dubai and regional feeder networks reaching South Asia and East Africa. Any disruption to shipping traffic here would have ripple effects well beyond the Gulf.
British maritime risk consultancy Ambrey issued a threat circular over the weekend, advising vessel owners to consider rerouting high-risk transits and seek drift points near friendly territorial waters. The firm also urged shipowners to evaluate whether vessels have any current or historical ties to Israel—a factor that has previously led to targeted attacks.
Vessels known to have Israeli affiliations have come under direct threat during prior flare-ups, and Ambrey’s guidance underscores the renewed risks in the Arabian Sea, Gulf of Oman, and Persian/Arabian Gulf.
BIMCO is echoing those recommendations. Shipowners are being urged to apply ship defense protocols, stay alert for suspicious activity, report to the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), and above all, prioritize crew safety.
According to Larsen, any suggestion of direct U.S. military involvement would further escalate the threat level for merchant shipping. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio described Israel’s strikes as “unilateral” and warned Iran not to target American personnel or assets.
The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC), led by the U.S., reported Friday that the Strait remains open with no confirmed threats to maritime navigation. However, JMIC advised shipping companies to review contingency plans covering routing, crew safety, and emergency response readiness for transits in the Northern Arabian Sea and the Gulf region.
Meanwhile, Greek authorities have issued their own advisory following past incidents of Iranian seizures involving Greek-owned tankers. Athens has asked Greek ship operators to provide detailed information on any planned transits through the Strait.
Data firm Kpler told CNBC it is monitoring ship movements for diversions but noted it’s still early to detect measurable changes following Israel’s strikes.
Shipping activity in the broader region has already been rerouted for over a year due to persistent Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, with a 60% drop in Suez Canal traffic compared to pre-crisis levels. Despite the Houthis publicly halting attacks on merchant vessels, shipowners have largely stayed away. Now, with fresh hostilities between Iran and Israel, any prospect of a return to previous routes appears distant.
Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta, said this escalation will likely increase marine insurance premiums, not just for cargo but also for crews and hulls.
“We’re expecting a sharp spike in ocean freight container rates as underwriters reassess the risks,” said Sand. “Carriers are likely to introduce a ‘security surcharge’ for voyages through this zone in the coming days.”
Source: msn
