A new report by DNV, “Maritime Forecast to 2050,” highlights that technological advancements are essential for reducing emissions in the maritime sector. The report underscores the importance of energy efficiency and digital technologies in cutting fuel consumption, while also detailing various regulatory frameworks to help achieve the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets.
To meet the IMO’s 2030 decarbonization goal of a 20% reduction in emissions, DNV emphasizes the need for substantial energy savings. The report makes it clear that achieving this target will be difficult without the adoption of technologies that minimize energy use. According to DNV, before carbon-neutral fuels become feasible, the maritime industry must focus on implementing and prioritizing such energy-saving technologies.
DNV’s Maritime CEO, Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, remarked, “While we are currently witnessing a slowdown of decarbonization in shipping, we are entering an era of unprecedented technological exploration that will drive progress forward.” With carbon-neutral fuels in limited supply, the report suggests that strategic investments in energy efficiency and digitalization are crucial to laying the groundwork for future emissions reductions.
The Maritime Forecast to 2050 outlines the challenges ahead, including the fact that shipping will need between 7 and 48 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in carbon-neutral fuels to reach its decarbonization targets by 2030. However, with the global production of these fuels expected to reach only between 44 and 63 Mtoe, shipping will face tough competition to secure its necessary share. New regulations, such as the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and FuelEU Maritime, will also place financial pressures on shipowners and operators to minimize fuel consumption.
The report presents four scenarios to explore conditions that could expedite the adoption of specific fuels and technologies by 2050. Regardless of the chosen path, it warns that the cost of decarbonization will be significant. The projected increases in transport costs range from 69-75% for bulk carriers, 70-86% for tankers, and 91-112% for container vessels. Eirik Ovrum, the Principal Consultant and Lead Author of the report, pointed out, “Decarbonizing shipping could double the cost of transporting goods by containers.”
Reducing energy losses is identified as a straightforward method to cut emissions across the global fleet. The report estimates that operational and technical measures could reduce fuel consumption by 4-16% by 2030. Achieving a 16% reduction could save 40 million tonnes of fuel and 120 million tonnes of CO2 emissions, equivalent to operating 55,000 small ships or 2,500 large ships with carbon-neutral fuels.
The report also highlights onboard carbon capture (OCC) as a promising way to continue using conventional fuels while cutting emissions. However, significant infrastructure development is needed for CO2 handling. Other potential solutions include shore power and battery use, which could reduce reliance on expensive carbon-neutral fuels. Shore power alone could save 7% of total energy consumption currently used in ports.
Digitalization is increasingly vital in supporting energy efficiency measures, the report notes. Digital tools help build trust within the industry, foster collaboration, and incentivize energy savings. Ovrum stated, “Our new report outlines how digitalization can shed light on vessel performance, providing vital data that shows the impact of energy-saving measures. Data-driven decision-making can then be used to design the next generation of energy-efficient ships.”
