Image: intermodal
A Rocky Start for Dry Bulk and Tanker Markets
The year 2025 has kicked off with considerable uncertainty in the maritime industry, particularly within the dry bulk and tanker sectors. A combination of geopolitical tensions, fluctuating market conditions, and the anticipation of new U.S. tariffs and sanctions are stirring the waters. While these external pressures weigh heavily on sentiment, the relatively steady supply of tonnage offers a modicum of stability.
The projected vessel deliveries for 2025 provide a window into the evolving dynamics of global freight. In the bulk carrier sector, a significant 541 vessels are expected to join the fleet, adding a hefty 38.33 million deadweight tons (dwt). This surge surpasses 2024’s deliveries by 51 vessels and 4.49 million dwt, making it the largest annual influx in terms of volume since 2016.
Among the highlights:
- 40 Capesize vessels, suitable for transporting massive quantities of iron ore and coal.
- 15 Post Panamax units, tailored for broader accessibility.
- 121 Kamsarmax and Panamax vessels, essential for versatile routes.
- 196 Ultramax/Supramax ships, marking the highest number since 2016.
- 146 Handysize vessels, all above 20,000 dwt, expected to boost flexibility in smaller ports.
Tanker Deliveries: A Mixed Bag
On the tanker front, the numbers tell a mixed story. While 2025 will see a notable rise in deliveries compared to 2024, the figures remain among the lowest of the past decade. Just 43 crude tankers, totaling 7.15 million dwt, are scheduled for delivery—less than half the average over the past five years.
Breaking it down:
- 5 VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers) are on the books.
- 30 Suezmax tankers, surpassing the five-year average of 22 units, hint at a modest revival in this segment.
- 8 Aframax tankers, a staple for regional routes, round out the crude fleet additions.
Product tankers, however, are making a notable comeback. A staggering 179 vessels exceeding 10,000 dwt, collectively carrying 12.09 million dwt, are slated for 2025—quadrupling the output of the previous year. This upswing marks the highest delivery rate since 2009, a clear pivot from 2024’s record lows.
Geopolitics Reshaping Routes
Last week’s market movements underscore the influence of geopolitics. New U.S. sanctions targeting Russian-linked vessels have forced a reshuffling of trade routes, tightening the availability of active wet tonnage. As a result, crude carrier rates, particularly for VLCCs and Suezmax vessels, have climbed.
The Arabian Gulf saw increased VLCC activity, while West Africa’s Suezmax market benefitted from a constricted tonnage pool. Rates on key routes reflected these dynamics:
- TD15 (WAF/China) climbed by 9.8%, closing at WS 51.89.
- TD3C (MEG/China) surged by 13.3% to WS 49.3.
Meanwhile, Aframax tankers experienced divergent trends. The U.S. Gulf market thrived on robust demand, pushing the TD25 (USG/UKC) rate up by 43.6% to WS 168.89. Conversely, oversupply weighed heavily on the Mediterranean and North Sea routes.
Dry Bulk: Weak Start with Glimmers of Hope
Dry bulk markets haven’t escaped the gloom. Capesize earnings saw an initial bump but faltered, with the C5TC index ending the week at $12,010 per day. Analysts anticipate low rates persisting through January, with a potential recovery only after the Chinese New Year festivities.
Other segments faced similar headwinds:
- Panamax 5TC rates remained stagnant at $9,186 per day.
- Supramax earnings fell by 6.53%, averaging $8,628 daily.
- Handysize rates dropped 5.05%, settling at $9,426 per day.
Shifting Tides in Ship Recycling
Recycling markets mirror the overall sentiment, as compliance with the Hong Kong Convention’s mid-2025 deadline looms large. South Asian markets face hurdles from political instability and inflation, while India’s shipbreaking industry stands out with positive prospects. Investments in upgrading Alang shipyards are positioning India for growth, despite a temporary lull in activity.
The Year Ahead
With macroeconomic factors adding to the maritime industry’s complexities, 2025 is shaping up to be a year of challenges and opportunities. Geopolitical shifts, environmental regulations, and fluctuating market demands will undoubtedly keep industry players on their toes.
Source: intermodal
