A sharp increase in trans-Atlantic air cargo demand is underway as European exporters rush to move goods to the U.S. before impending tariffs take effect in April. The automotive sector is at the forefront, with manufacturers fast-tracking shipments to sidestep the new duties. Freight forwarders are holding off on long-term commitments, opting instead for short-term agreements as they navigate the uncertainty.
Carriers, meanwhile, are reevaluating their freighter capacity strategies, considering a shift away from China to Southeast Asia or the trans-Atlantic market. This comes as supply chain volatility continues to shape global air cargo flows. With annual contract negotiations for 2025 being deferred, market participants are treading cautiously, waiting for more clarity before making long-term commitments.
The suspension of the ‘de minimis’ exemption, which previously allowed duty-free imports for low-value shipments under $800, is adding another layer of complexity. This regulatory shift is expected to hit e-commerce shipments hard, particularly those originating from China to the U.S., potentially softening air cargo demand in that corridor.
Industry insiders suggest that while trans-Atlantic routes are experiencing a short-term boom, broader market conditions remain fragile. Freight operators are balancing the need for agility with long-term planning as trade policies continue to evolve. The coming months will test the adaptability of air cargo stakeholders, with ongoing geopolitical shifts playing a critical role in shaping capacity and pricing dynamics.
