Blank sailings on the Trans-Pacific trade have surged following the U.S. tariff announcement on April 2, with carriers scrambling to withdraw capacity and adjust to shifting trade dynamics.
The recent tariff announcement by President Trump has thrown a wrench into the gears of global shipping. According to Drewry, blank sailings on the Trans-Pacific Eastbound route surged from 9% in early April to a staggering 24% by early May. The move underscores growing anxiety among shippers and carriers, with many opting to delay long-term decisions in light of policy uncertainty.
Shippers have notably scaled back export bookings from China, triggering rapid adjustments from carriers keen to avoid oversupply. The data reveals that MSC is leading the wave of blank sailings, pulling 30% of its scheduled services, followed by the Premier Alliance at 25%, Ocean Alliance at 23%, and Gemini trailing with just 6%.
Capacity drops are evident across the board. From Asia to the U.S. East Coast, April saw a 22% capacity reduction, with May continuing the trend at 18%. On the West Coast route, capacity fell 20% in April and 12% in May. These steep declines are not just about fewer sailings — they also reflect a shift in vessel deployment strategies, including the use of smaller ships or outright cancellations of large-capacity vessels.
Interestingly, May is showing a slight rebound. Capacity between Asia and the West Coast is up 5%, and 11% on the East Coast compared to April. This is largely due to a reduction in canceled sailings and the reinstatement of some larger vessels into the schedule.
However, the broader trend is toward contraction. Several carriers are not just canceling individual sailings but removing entire services. MSC has suspended a service to the U.S. West Coast, eliminating 43,000 TEU of monthly capacity. ZIM pulled 20,000 TEU, and TS Lines dropped another 8,000 TEU. Plans by the Premier Alliance to launch a new service this May have also been postponed indefinitely.
Meanwhile, SINOLINES has launched a Trans-Pacific service to Mexico, pointedly bypassing U.S. ports — a move that signals growing diversification as trade tensions ripple through logistics networks.
There’s cautious speculation that U.S. importers might start sourcing more from other Asian nations to avoid Chinese tariffs. This could prompt a short-term increase in volumes before the July deadline of the current tariff pause, potentially causing a wave of early peak-season shipping — or “front-loading.”
Looking forward, Drewry’s Container Capacity Insight predicts that Trans-Pacific capacity in May will be 5% to 8% higher than in April, but July could bring fresh reductions. Much hinges on the outcome of ongoing tariff negotiations. A favorable resolution could lead to a sharp rebound in volumes. But prolonged uncertainty? That could deepen the crisis, forcing more service cuts and blank sailings well into Q3.
In a move that signals a flicker of short-term optimism, some carriers have announced general rate increases (GRIs) and peak season surcharges effective mid-May. But given the volatile environment, many industry experts remain skeptical that these rate hikes will hold.
Source: Drewry
