Transpacific and Transatlantic Routes See Surge in Cancelled Sailings

Estimated reading time: 3 minutes

Imagine planning a voyage across the ocean, only to have your ship suddenly disappear from the schedule. That’s the reality for many shippers on the Transpacific and Transatlantic routes this year. The number of cancelled sailings in March and April skyrocketed to 198, a stark increase from the 135 seen in the same period last year. So, what’s driving this wave of cancellations?

The increase in cancelled sailings is particularly noticeable on the Asia-West Coast North America and Transatlantic routes. Normally, carriers cancel many sailings in February due to Chinese New Year, but this year, the trend continued into March and April. Drewry‘s Container Capacity Insight service reveals that carriers cancelled more than 40 sailings a month on the Asia-West Coast North America route during these months. This is unusual, as carriers typically reduce cancellations after the Chinese New Year period.

One of the key factors behind this trend is the uncertainty surrounding US tariffs. US importers are hesitant to ship goods from Asia to the US without knowing what new tariffs they might face upon arrival. This uncertainty has led to a slowdown in shipping volumes, prompting carriers to cancel sailings in anticipation of lower demand. Additionally, the practice of “front-loading” – where shippers move goods earlier than usual to avoid potential disruptions – has contributed to the current situation.

Another factor at play could be carrier tactics. With new service contracts starting from 1 May, carriers and shippers are currently in negotiations. Some carriers may be cancelling sailings to create the impression of tight capacity, thereby justifying increases in contract rates. This strategy, while not uncommon, adds another layer of complexity to an already uncertain market.

The Transatlantic route is also feeling the impact, with about twice as many sailings cancelled this March and April compared to the same period last year. Unlike the Transpacific route, a smaller proportion of annual contracts are being negotiated on the Transatlantic route. The primary drivers for the increased cancellations here seem to be the uncertainty of US tariffs and the expected decline in volumes.

For those in the industry looking for more detailed information, Drewry‘s Container Capacity Insight subscription service provides additional data on cancelled sailings, capacity changes, port congestion, dwell times, and other supply-side drivers. This service can be a valuable tool for navigating the complexities of the current maritime landscape.

The uncertainty surrounding US tariffs and the strategic maneuvers of carriers are reshaping the maritime industry. As negotiations continue and tariff policies evolve, the future of these routes remains uncertain. The industry will need to adapt to these changes, finding ways to mitigate the impact of cancelled sailings and maintain the flow of goods across the globe.

Drewry‘s Container Capacity Insight service provides additional data on cancelled sailings, capacity changes, port congestion, dwell times, and other supply-side drivers. This service can be a valuable tool for navigating the complexities of the current maritime landscape.

The uncertainty surrounding US tariffs and the strategic maneuvers of carriers are reshaping the maritime industry. As negotiations continue and tariff policies evolve, the future of these routes remains uncertain. The industry will need to adapt to these changes, finding ways to mitigate the impact of cancelled sailings and maintain the flow of goods across the globe.

^{Source: drewry}