Corporate finance chiefs are growing increasingly wary of the economic road ahead, with a majority now predicting a recession before the end of 2025, according to CNBC’s latest CFO Council Survey. While the stock market has attempted brief rallies, the mood in boardrooms remains grim. Most CFOs say they’re pessimistic about the U.S. economy’s overall state, with 60% expecting a downturn in the second half of the year.
The shift in sentiment is stark. Just a quarter ago, only 7% of CFOs foresaw a 2025 recession. But now, the narrative has flipped. CFOs cite U.S. trade policy as the top external business risk, alongside inflation and sagging consumer demand. Confusion stemming from shifting messages out of the White House—particularly around tariffs—has left finance executives scrambling.
CFOs described President Donald Trump’s second term as “chaotic,” “disruptive,” and “a wild ride.” While some appreciate that he’s sticking to campaign promises, the execution is proving too volatile for stable planning. One CFO put it bluntly: “Too chaotic for business to navigate effectively.”
Policy uncertainty isn’t just a concern—it’s a blocker. A staggering 95% of respondents said current government policy is interfering with business decision-making. As industries chase tariff exemptions tailored to their interests, most CFOs worry that rising costs will re-ignite inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to delay its 2% inflation target until 2026 or even 2027.
Capex trends reflect this unease. Compared to Q4 2024, fewer companies are planning to boost capital spending in 2025. Most intend to hold spending flat, while 20% anticipate cuts. The cautious stance also shows up in market expectations—90% of CFOs believe the Dow Jones Industrial Average will fall back to 40,000 before hitting 50,000.
Interestingly, when asked which market sector would lead in growth over the next six months, the most common response was “Don’t know.” Historically, sectors like tech or health care top this list. That this uncertainty dominates speaks volumes about the unsettled business environment.
While CFOs are bearish on the macro outlook, they’re still hopeful about their own industries—75% remain optimistic on that front. Still, the economy-wide picture remains cloudy. One finance chief said, “I feel the current administration is seeing how far they can push before anything breaks.” Another summed up the confusion with sharper words: “Complete chaos, without an end game strategy.”
Source:CNBC
