Xeneta raises 2026 air freight outlook as Middle East conflict drives higher rates

Estimated reading time: 3 minutes

The global air freight market is expected to end 2026 with stronger pricing than previously forecast after disruption caused by the conflict in the Middle East reshaped supply and demand during the first half of the year, according to Xeneta.

In its Air Freight Outlook 2026 Mid Year Update, the Oslo based freight intelligence provider revised its full year forecast for long term shipper rates from an expected decline of 5 to 10 percent to an increase of between 5 and 15 percent. The adjustment follows the loss of significant cargo capacity after the escalation of conflict across the Middle East at the end of February.

According to Xeneta, the conflict removed around 12 percent of global air cargo capacity almost overnight, contributing to supply growth of just 1 percent during the first six months of 2026. Demand, however, increased by 4 percent over the same period, exceeding the company’s original annual forecast of 2 to 3 percent growth.

The imbalance between available capacity and cargo demand lifted global air freight rates sharply. Combined spot and long term rates increased 17 percent year on year during the first half of 2026, while spot market prices climbed by around 40 percent in May before stabilising.

Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta, said the market had delivered an unexpected reversal.

“On 27 February I would have bet on the Netherlands winning the World Cup before I put money on air rates jumping 40 percent,” he said. “Spot rates are now plateauing, but they are not falling.”

He added that while demand is expected to soften during the second half of the year and capacity continues to recover, market conditions remain difficult to predict.

Xeneta also identified a shift in the drivers behind air cargo demand. Artificial intelligence related shipments, particularly semiconductors and computing hardware, have become a major contributor to market growth.

Global semiconductor sales rose 106 percent year on year in April 2026, marking the strongest increase since records began in 1986. Although AI related cargo represents less than 10 percent of global air freight volumes, it is heavily concentrated on Transpacific services, now the strongest performing trade lane.

At the same time, ecommerce demand has weakened. China’s low value and ecommerce exports declined 7 percent year on year in May, marking a sixth consecutive monthly fall. The European Union also introduced new charges on low value imports from 1 July, replacing the previous duty free threshold with a flat fee per item.

Van de Wouw said ecommerce will remain an important cargo segment, but the exceptional growth seen in recent years is unlikely to return.

Looking ahead, Xeneta warned that geopolitical uncertainty continues to present risks for global supply chains.

Van de Wouw said the closure of major Middle Eastern air hubs following missile attacks demonstrated how rapidly market conditions can change. While air freight operators restored charter services within days, he cautioned that future disruptions remain difficult to anticipate and reinforced the importance of real time market intelligence for shippers managing increasingly volatile supply chains.