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The head of ADNOC has warned that full oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz may not recover until 2027, underscoring growing concerns across the maritime and logistics sectors over the long term disruption to one of the world’s most important shipping corridors.
Speaking during an Atlantic Council event in Dubai, ADNOC chief executive Sultan Al Jaber said even an immediate end to the Middle East conflict would leave global energy supply chains under pressure for many months.
“Even if this conflict ends tomorrow, it will take at least four months to get back to 80% of pre conflict flows, and full flows will not return before the first or even second quarter of 2027,” Jaber said.
The comments mark one of the bleakest recovery forecasts yet from a senior energy executive since the escalation of tensions between Iran, Israel and the United States earlier this year. The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly one fifth of global oil trade and remains a critical route for crude tankers, LNG carriers and refined products moving between the Gulf and international markets.
Tanker operators face prolonged disruption
For shipping companies and cargo owners, the latest outlook reinforces fears that emergency routing measures and elevated operating costs may become a longer term feature of Gulf trade. Insurance premiums for vessels operating in the region have climbed sharply since Iran began targeting commercial shipping after the conflict erupted in late February.
Iran has since expanded its operational reach beyond the narrow strait itself, according to Reuters, extending scrutiny and controls toward the UAE’s Gulf of Oman coastline. That area now serves as an important alternative export route through the port of Fujairah.
The UAE has continued exporting some crude through its Fujairah pipeline system, helping maintain limited flows despite mounting regional instability.
Jaber described the situation as more than an energy crisis.
“This is not just an economic problem,” he said. “Once you accept that a single country can hold the world’s most important waterway hostage, freedom of navigation as we know it is just finished.”
For project cargo operators and breakbulk carriers, the implications stretch far beyond oil. Rising bunker costs, restricted vessel availability and shifting trade patterns are already affecting industrial supply chains linked to infrastructure, power generation and heavy industry projects.
Energy supply chains under pressure
Jaber said the conflict has exposed vulnerabilities across global supply chains, pointing to a 30% rise in fuel prices, a 50% increase in fertilizer prices and airfares that are now roughly 25% higher.
It is a reminder of how quickly disruption in one narrow waterway can ripple through global logistics networks. Like a blocked motorway feeding an entire continent, congestion at Hormuz affects everything connected downstream.
More than 80 countries have reportedly introduced emergency economic measures since the crisis began.
Jaber urged governments and industry to invest more heavily in supply chain resilience and energy infrastructure.
“Every farm, every factory, every family is paying the price,” he said. “The ones who are most vulnerable end up carrying the heaviest load.”
His remarks followed similar warnings from Saudi Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser, who recently cautioned that oil markets may not stabilize before 2027 if disruptions continue into mid-June.
For maritime operators, the concern now centers on whether elevated freight costs and security risks become embedded into long term planning across Gulf trade lanes.
Source: reuters
