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Widebody cargo operators are increasingly splitting on long term fleet strategy as delayed aircraft deliveries collide with rising demand for larger freighters driven by artificial intelligence infrastructure shipments.
Cargolux chief executive Richard Forson said the Luxembourg based carrier’s Boeing 777 8F deliveries had slipped from 2027 to 2029, forcing the airline to review interim capacity options while maintaining its commitment to Boeing aircraft.
“We are a Boeing operator,” Mr Forson told The Loadstar, adding that operating both Airbus and Boeing fleets “really makes no sense” for an airline of Cargolux’s size.
The comments reflect a growing divide across the freighter market. Some carriers continue backing Boeing’s delayed 777 8F programme, while others are moving quickly toward Airbus’s competing A350F.
Earlier this year, Atlas Air placed an order for 20 Airbus A350Fs, becoming the programme’s largest customer and securing early delivery positions at a time when replacement freighter capacity is tightening.
AI cargo demand reshapes fleet planning
The shift comes as AI infrastructure emerges as one of air cargo’s fastest growing segments.
Freight forwarder Flexport said during a webinar this month that AI infrastructure accounted for about 15% of air cargo demand growth last year and was expanding at nearly 50% annually. The company believes AI related shipments could eventually overtake ecommerce as the sector’s main growth driver.
The forwarder said large AI server racks were already putting pressure on direct air cargo capacity between Taiwan and the United States, as well as China and the United States.
“Server racks used to be around eight feet tall,” Flexport said during the webinar. “Now they are around nine feet.”
That extra foot is becoming a serious operational issue. Larger server racks increasingly require Boeing 747 freighters because of their nose loading capability and internal dimensions. It is a reminder that sometimes the industry’s newest technology still depends on some of aviation’s oldest aircraft.
The trend is creating a contradiction for the cargo sector. Demand for large freighters is rising just as replacement aircraft availability becomes more constrained and older four engine aircraft become more expensive to operate.
Conversion feedstock remains limited
Consultancy IBA warned this week that widebody freighter feedstock would likely remain constrained for the rest of the decade.
The consultancy said delays to Boeing’s 777 9 passenger aircraft programme were preventing older Boeing 777 300ER aircraft from entering the passenger to freighter conversion market.
“The feedstock is stuck in the passenger market,” IBA said, adding that the 777 9 delays had effectively created “seven years of extra life” for passenger 777 300ERs that would otherwise have become freighter conversion candidates.
IBA also noted that, for the first time since 2009, widebody freighter conversions had exceeded narrowbody conversions, reflecting stronger demand for long haul cargo aircraft.
Middle East disruption raises operating pressure
Geopolitical disruption is adding further strain to the market.
IBA said international cargo traffic in the Middle East had fallen sharply since March, while freight rates were running roughly 36% above last year’s levels because of operational disruption and higher fuel costs.
“Four engine aircraft are seeing margins being squeezed,” the consultancy warned.
Despite those pressures, operators may have little choice but to continue flying ageing fleets.
Mr Forson acknowledged that older freighters such as the MD 11F remained commercially viable because demand continued to support their economics.
“Provided that there is shortage of capacity or an excess of demand to move goods by air, all the aircraft will continue to fly,” he said.
