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Canada’s maritime trade infrastructure has lost significant ground in global shipping networks over the past seven years, with total vessel capacity at its ports dropping 28% and the country falling from 6th to 23rd worldwide in deadweight tonnage, according to a new analysis by the Bank of Canada.
The findings, drawn from satellite tracking of ship movements between 2016 and 2023, reveal a structural shift in global trade connectivity away from North America and toward East Asian hubs, raising questions about the resilience of Canadian supply chains at a time of escalating trade tensions.
Direct Connections Shrink as Mega Ships Bypass Canadian Ports
The Bank of Canada study used data from exactEarth Ltd. and the London Stock Exchange Group to measure how central each port is within global shipping routes. The metric, known as degree centrality, tracks the number of unique destinations directly linked to a given port.
All five of Canada’s top ports saw their degree centrality decline considerably between 2016 and 2023. The trend means fewer direct shipping routes connect Canadian terminals to overseas markets, forcing more cargo onto indirect paths through foreign hubs.
A key driver is the growing mismatch between vessel size and port infrastructure. The latest ultra large container ships can carry more than 20,000 standard containers, but the largest vessels Canadian ports can handle top out at roughly 15,000 containers. That gap forces goods arriving from Southeast Asia on larger ships to first pass through the port of Los Angeles before reaching Canada by rail or truck, adding time, cost, and vulnerability to the journey.
North America Loses Its Grip on Top Rankings
The shift is not limited to Canada. The United States also experienced declining connectivity. In 2016, three US ports ranked among the world’s 10 most connected. By 2023, none remained in the top 10. East Asian ports filled the vacuum: eight of the top 10 most connected ports in 2023 were located in the region, up from six in 2016.
The capacity numbers tell a similar story. Total deadweight tonnage moving through Canadian ports fell from 167 million metric tons in 2016 to 119 million metric tons in 2023. Over the same period, Canada lost 11 trading partners that had accounted for just over 6 million metric tons of capacity. It gained 18 new partners, but those contributed only about 3 million metric tons, not enough to offset the losses.
The United States slipped from 2nd to 3rd globally in total port tonnage. Among the top 20 countries, 10 saw their overall deadweight tonnage more than double during the seven-year window. Canada and the United States were among the few that received less tonnage in 2023 than in 2016.
Supply Chain Risks Mount for Canadian Importers and Exporters
The practical consequences extend beyond ranking tables. Lower relative connectivity means a growing share of Canadian maritime trade now travels along indirect routes, passing through larger foreign hubs before reaching domestic terminals. That adds transit time, layers of logistics complexity, and greater exposure to disruptions at distant ports.
For breakbulk and project cargo operators, which often rely on specialized tonnage and port handling infrastructure, the trend could compound scheduling challenges. Fewer direct connections mean fewer sailing options and potentially higher freight costs as carriers consolidate services around mega hub ports in Asia.
The Bank of Canada analysis cautioned that some of the decline is relative rather than absolute, driven partly by rapid trade growth between developing economies. Still, the data point to a clear conclusion: Canada has become more dependent on global networks it does not control.
The study did not propose specific policy responses, but the findings arrive as governments across North America weigh investments in port infrastructure, inland logistics corridors, and trade diversification strategies. Whether Canadian ports can attract the next generation of vessel capacity or will continue to rely on transshipment through foreign hubs may shape the country’s trade competitiveness for years to come.
