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CMA CGM posted stronger 2025 earnings than Maersk despite nearly identical revenues, underscoring a widening strategic divide between the world’s second and third-largest container carriers just as a wave of new vessel capacity and geopolitical turmoil threaten to reshape the industry in 2026.
The French shipping group reported $54.4 billion in revenue for 2025, a 2% decline from the previous year, with EBITDA of $10.6 billion and an EBITDA margin of 19.4%. Maersk, by contrast, saw its full year revenue land at $54 billion while EBITDA fell to $9.57 billion, down from $12.1 billion a year earlier. Both carriers were squeezed by falling freight rates, yet CMA CGM’s diversified bets on terminals, air cargo, and logistics cushioned the blow.
Rate Collapse Forces Maersk Into Defensive Mode
The gap in resilience showed most clearly in each company’s 2026 outlook. Maersk’s CEO Vincent Clerc warned in February that the carrier expects container shipping rates to “develop adversely” throughout 2026, projecting underlying EBITDA of $4.5 billion to $7 billion and EBIT ranging from a $1.5 billion loss to a $1 billion profit. The Danish line announced plans to cut 1,000 corporate jobs, about 15% of its corporate workforce of 6,000, targeting $180 million in annual savings.
Maersk’s ocean division already recorded a $153 million loss in the fourth quarter of 2025, its first quarterly loss in years, driven by softening rates on major east to west trade lanes. The company also announced a share buyback program worth up to $1 billion over the next 12 months, a move analysts interpreted as an effort to signal confidence to investors even as earnings deteriorate.
CMA CGM, meanwhile, posted a near breakeven net result for Q4 2025 on maritime revenue of $6.3 billion, but its volume growth of 5.3% in the quarter outpaced the broader industry’s 4.6%. For the first quarter of 2026, the company projected shipping volume growth of about 4.5%. Revenue from its terminals and air cargo operations surged 48.4% to $4.3 billion for the full year, giving Rodolphe Saade, CMA CGM’s chairman and CEO, reason to describe the results as “solid” despite what he called “significant geopolitical uncertainty.”
Red Sea Gamble Adds Complexity
The profitability picture is further complicated by the unresolved question of Red Sea routing. CMA CGM initially led the industry’s tentative return to the Suez Canal in late 2025 and early 2026, but reversed course in January by pulling its FAL 1, FAL 3, and MEX services back to the Cape of Good Hope, citing the “complex and uncertain international context.” The Ocean Alliance, which includes CMA CGM, Cosco Shipping, Evergreen, and OOCL, confirmed in January that its full network from April 2026 would continue routing via southern Africa.
That decision locks up an estimated 2 million TEU of global capacity in longer voyages, a dynamic that has propped up freight rates since Houthi attacks on merchant shipping began in late 2023. Should carriers eventually make a large scale return to Suez, the released capacity would compound an already severe overcapacity problem.
As of early April 2026, Drewry’s World Container Index stood at $2,287 per 40 foot container, steady week on week but influenced by new disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz tied to the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran. Carriers including Maersk have pushed for emergency bunker surcharges of up to $200 per TEU as fuel availability tightens in key hubs like Singapore and China.
Consolidation and Overcapacity Collide
The competitive landscape is shifting fast. MSC (Mediterranean Shipping Company) has extended its lead to 7.2 million TEU of fleet capacity across 980 vessels, commanding a 21.4% market share according to Alphaliner. The Geneva based carrier now holds a capacity advantage of more than 2.5 million TEU over Maersk.
In a deal that could redraw the industry’s competitive map, Hapag Lloyd signed a $4.2 billion agreement in February to acquire ZIM Integrated Shipping Services at $35 per share, a 58% premium to ZIM’s pre-announcement stock price. If approved by shareholders and regulators by late 2026, the combination would make Hapag Lloyd the world’s fifth-largest container line with a fleet exceeding 400 vessels and over 3 million TEU of capacity. A carved out Israeli entity called “New ZIM,” backed by private equity firm FIMI Opportunity Funds, will retain 16 vessels serving trade routes into Israel.
Yet the deal faces political headwinds. An Israeli Knesset panel raised concerns in February over ZIM’s critical role in the country’s wartime logistics, and Transport Minister Miri Regev ordered a review of the sale. Complicating matters, Hapag Lloyd’s shareholder base includes the Qatar Investment Authority and a Saudi sovereign wealth fund, a pairing that has drawn scrutiny from Israeli officials.
Hanging over all of these moves is a record orderbook. The world’s five largest container lines have vessels on order with a combined capacity of nearly 7 million TEU, equivalent to roughly 20% of the current global fleet. Deliveries are expected to ease to 1.7 million TEU in 2026 before surging again to 2.8 million TEU in 2027 and 3.5 million TEU in 2028, according to Clarksons Securities.
For shippers negotiating contracts this year, the message from the market is unmistakable: rates face structural downward pressure, but short term spikes driven by geopolitics and fuel costs remain a persistent risk.
