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The global container fleet grew faster than ever in the first quarter of 2026, yet emissions efficiency worsened, with average carbon intensity climbing 4% to 208.2 g CO2e per TEU km, according to a new voyage level analysis published by maritime data firm VesselBot.
The report, titled Decoding Maritime Emissions Q1 2026: Efficiency Under Pressure, tracked 82,212 voyages completed by 6,187 vessels during the January to March period. Total well to wake emissions reached 54.5 million tons of CO2 equivalent, a 10.2% increase compared with the same quarter in 2025. Transport work rose 8.6% to 740.5 billion TEU km. The number of voyages surged 19.5%, but much of that increase came from smaller feeder ships making short regional runs, diluting overall fleet efficiency rather than improving it.
The findings land at a moment when carriers, shippers, and regulators are grappling with simultaneous disruptions: geopolitical turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz, surging oil prices, and a record wave of newbuilding deliveries that is reshaping fleet capacity.
Hormuz Crisis and Oil Prices Compound Pressure
Since late February 2026, the Strait of Hormuz has experienced severe disruption. A UNCTAD analysis published in March found that crossings through the strait plunged 97% compared with the February average, falling from 129 to just four daily transits. While only about 3% of containerized cargo passes through the strait, 38% of crude oil and significant shares of LPG and LNG do, pushing energy costs sharply higher across all transport modes.
Brent crude prices surged 40.2% between late February and mid March, climbing from $70.6 to $99 per barrel. By May, prices peaked at $114.4 per barrel, the highest level since April 2022.
The impact on regional port activity has been stark. Containership voyages to Jebel Ali, one of the Gulf’s most important container terminals, collapsed from 297 in March 2025 to just 38 in March 2026. That drop reflects a broader pullback in container vessel calls across the Middle East as operators reassess risk on routes transiting the strait.
Meanwhile, the global fleet continues to expand. The active container carrying fleet reached 7,538 ships with a combined capacity exceeding 34 million TEU as of mid May 2026, according to Alphaliner data. MSC recently crossed a milestone of 1,000 vessels in its fleet, now controlling 21.5% of global capacity by TEU. Net fleet growth is projected to average 9.9% annually through 2029, according to Veson Nautical, while TEU mile demand growth is forecast at just 1.4% for 2026, creating a widening gap between available capacity and actual cargo demand.
Big Ships Get Cleaner, but Feeders Drag Down the Average
The VesselBot data reveals a sharp split in emissions performance by vessel size. Emissions intensity actually improved for every vessel class except feeders. NeoPanamax vessels saw intensity fall 16%, while Very Large Container Ships (VLCS) recorded a 10.5% drop. Post Panamax and Intermediate vessels also posted meaningful reductions.
Yet feeder containerships, those carrying fewer than 3,000 TEU, made up 57.5% of the tracked fleet and performed 64.5% of all voyages. Their average intensity of 266 g CO2e per TEU km was well above the fleet average. Because feeders carry less cargo over shorter distances, their emissions per unit of transport work are structurally higher. Their growing share of the voyage count pulled the overall average upward even as larger vessels became more efficient.
The contrast is striking in terms of transport work. NeoPanamax vessels and VLCS together accounted for only 6.6% of all voyages but generated 41.3% of total transport work during the quarter. A total of 432 NeoPanamax vessels, representing 7% of the fleet, alone delivered 24.5% of all TEU km.
Utilization proved to be the single strongest driver of efficiency. The most efficient voyages recorded average utilization of 77% and carried 9,163 TEU per sailing. The least efficient voyages recorded utilization of just 51% and carried an average of only 490 TEU.
Carrier Rankings Shift Quarter to Quarter on Key Trade Lanes
On the four major fronthaul routes analyzed in the report, just 886 direct voyages, or 1.1% of all sailings, generated 11% of total quarterly emissions and 16.7% of transport work.
Carrier performance varied significantly even on identical routes. On the China/East Asia to Mediterranean corridor, Evergreen led with an average intensity of 65.6 g CO2e per TEU km, compared with 79.7 for MSC and 80.9 for HMM. The gap was largely explained by Evergreen’s higher utilization at 93% and shorter average voyage distances, as most of its sailings on the route departed from Singapore rather than Chinese ports.
On the Northern Europe to North America East Coast lane, Hapag Lloyd and Maersk recorded nearly identical intensities at 99.1 and 100.2 respectively, reflecting their shared alliance capacity. CMA CGM posted a sharply higher 121.9, driven by an 11.2% drop in utilization and a 26.2% decline in average TEU carried per voyage.
Perhaps the most telling finding involved ONE Line on the transpacific. In the first quarter of 2025, ONE Line ranked as the most efficient carrier between China/East Asia and the West Coast of North America. One year later, it had slipped to third place behind Wan Hai and Yang Ming, after its utilization fell 13.7% and the average TEU per voyage dropped by a similar margin.
“Real time execution grade maritime emissions data at the carrier, vessel, and port pair level gives logistics teams the visibility needed to evaluate operational performance and optimize transportation decisions based on how shipments actually move rather than on generalized industry averages,” said Constantine Komodromos, CEO and Founder of VesselBot. He added that voyage level intelligence is becoming essential not only for emissions reporting but also for improving transportation efficiency, carrier selection, and supply chain resilience as commercial and regulatory pressure intensifies.
With the EU Emissions Trading System now covering maritime transport and the International Maritime Organization tightening its decarbonization timeline, the gap between fleet wide averages and actual shipment level performance is no longer just an analytical curiosity. For shippers negotiating contracts, insurers pricing risk, and regulators enforcing compliance, the difference between 55 and 266 g CO2e per TEU km on a single trade lane is the difference between meeting a target and missing it entirely.
