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A.P. Moller Maersk has upgraded its full year 2026 guidance after stronger container demand, particularly from the Far East, and a sustained rise in spot freight rates improved the outlook for earnings and cash flow.
Earnings outlook improves
The Copenhagen based carrier now expects underlying EBITDA of USD 8 billion to USD 10 billion for 2026, up from its previous range of USD 4.5 billion to USD 7 billion.
Underlying EBIT is now forecast at USD 2 billion to USD 4 billion, compared with earlier guidance ranging from a loss of USD 1.5 billion to a profit of USD 1 billion.
Free cash flow is expected to be at least negative USD 1.5 billion, an improvement from the previous expectation of at least negative USD 3 billion.
Far East demand supports rates
Maersk said the change reflects continued strong demand in the container market, especially in Far East trades, together with a recent and sustained increase in spot market rates.
For shippers, the update points to a market that has tightened faster than many expected. When spot rates move and demand holds, the effect can spread quickly through contracts, capacity planning and equipment availability. It is a bit like seeing the tide turn before the harbour master has changed the signal.
The company now bases its outlook on global container market volume growth of about 4 percent for the full year. Its previous assumption was growth of 2 percent to 4 percent.
Market waits for Q2 details
The upgraded guidance gives the market an early view of how Maersk sees demand and rates developing, but the full picture will come with its second quarter interim results.
Maersk is scheduled to publish those results on 13 August 2026.
The update also matters beyond container shipping. Forwarders, cargo owners, project logistics providers and breakbulk operators often read container market signals as an early indicator of wider supply chain pressure. Stronger container demand can affect port flows, trucking availability, inland capacity and warehouse planning.
For now, Maersk’s message is clear: the container market has gained more support than expected, and higher spot rates have changed the financial outlook for 2026.
