Estimated reading time: 4 minutes
By Peter Bouwhuis
Let me ask you something. Imagine you rely on a single bridge to get to work every day. Millions of people use it. Trucks, buses, bikes. Then one morning, it’s gone. What do you do? That is essentially what happened to global air cargo on February 28, 2026, when Operation Epic Fury turned the Middle East into a no-fly zone overnight.
The strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggered a full regional escalation didn’t just change geopolitics. They quietly strangled one of the most critical arteries of global trade. And most people have no idea.
Here’s the thing that doesn’t make the front pages. Thirteen percent of all air freight in the entire world passes through the Gulf. Not because it’s a destination. Because it’s a pit stop. Dubai, Doha, Abu Dhabi — these are the world’s refuelling lounges for cargo flying between Asia and Europe. Medicines. Electronics. Perishables. Your phone parts, your fresh flowers, your next-day delivery. All of it flows through there.
And right now? 21,300 flights have been cancelled across those seven major airports. Emirates SkyCargo stopped taking new bookings. Qatar Airways Cargo is suspended. FedEx pulled out of the entire region. Cathay Pacific stopped freighter services to Dubai. Even Lufthansa Cargo and Turkish Cargo are backing away. This is not a small hiccup. Global air cargo capacity is down 18%. On some Asia to Europe routes, the drop is more than 40%.
So where is everything going now? The answer is: the long way around.
Airlines are skipping the Gulf altogether and flying direct or via alternative tech stops. That pushes costs up immediately because longer routes burn more fuel and require more pilot hours. Rates are already climbing, and DSV has formally warned customers to brace for upward pressure. War risk surcharges are being added on top of fuel surcharges. We’re talking a potential 10% premium just for rerouting. And that’s before we get to what happens when China’s factories hit full post-Lunar New Year output in the coming weeks and the flood of cargo has nowhere efficient to go.
I find it almost ironic. We spent years worrying about what Russia’s war in Ukraine would do to airspace. That conflict already forced flights off the polar routes over Russia, adding hours and cost to Asia to Europe journeys. Now the Middle East closes too. We’ve lost the bridge from the east and the shortcut from the north. What’s left? Flying the scenic route, at your expense.
And it’s not just air. CMA CGM has suspended Suez Canal passage entirely. MSC has stopped taking bookings for Middle East cargo. The ocean isn’t an escape hatch here. Both the air and sea corridors through this region are effectively shut. Xeneta’s chief analyst Peter Sand put it plainly: the conflict shattered any hopes of Red Sea shipping recovery in 2026.
What worries me most is the cargo nobody is talking about. Warehouses are filling up. Seko Logistics is already flagging backlogs, and the real victims here are the perishables and pharmaceuticals sitting in those warehouses waiting for a flight that may not come for days. That’s not an abstract statistic. That’s food rotting and medicine delayed.
Will this end soon? Honestly, nobody knows. The European Union’s own security institute says the risk of further escalation into Lebanon and Iraq is high. Airlines have extended their suspensions into at least March 7 or 8, with vague language about “pending regional de-escalation.” That’s diplomatic talk for “we have no idea.”
What I do know is this. The global supply chain was already fragile. We learned that the hard way during COVID. We relearned it when Russia invaded Ukraine. And now, once again, a conflict thousands of kilometres away is reaching into your supply chain, your delivery timelines, and eventually your wallet. The bridge is gone. And nobody has yet figured out how to build a new one fast enough.
