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Multiple commercial vessels came under attack in the Middle East over the weekend, prompting the world’s largest ocean carriers to suspend transits through the Strait of Hormuz and reroute ships away from the Red Sea as the military conflict between US Israeli forces and Iran intensifies.
At least three ships were struck by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman on Sunday, according to maritime security agencies. One tanker was reported to be sinking after being hit while attempting to transit the strategic waterway, with Iranian state television confirming its forces targeted the vessel for defying orders not to cross.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported separate incidents off the coasts of Oman and the United Arab Emirates. One vessel was struck by an unknown projectile above the waterline, while another was hit causing a fire onboard. A third ship reported an explosion in close proximity 35 nautical miles west of Sharjah.
Oman’s Maritime Security Center confirmed that 20 crew members from the Palau flagged tanker Skylight were evacuated after it was targeted north of Khasab Port, with four people injured.
The attacks follow the joint US Israel operation on Saturday that resulted in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards subsequently closed the shipping lane, warning that it was dangerous due to ongoing strikes.
Carriers Suspend Gulf Operations, Implement War Surcharges
Major shipping lines moved swiftly to protect assets and crews, suspending bookings and diverting vessels.
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) suspended all cargo bookings to the Middle East and directed vessels in the Gulf region to proceed to safe shelter areas until further notice. A.P. Moller Maersk halted all vessel crossings through the Strait of Hormuz indefinitely and announced it would reroute ships from the Suez Canal to the Cape of Good Hope.
Hapag Lloyd implemented a war risk surcharge of USD 1,500 per twenty foot container for cargo in the region, effective March 2. CMA CGM followed with an emergency conflict surcharge of USD 2,000 per twenty foot container and instructed its vessels in the Gulf to proceed to ports of refuge.
China COSCO Shipping confirmed that vessels which had completed operations in the Persian Gulf have been directed to safe waters for standby or anchoring, while the company evaluates options including potential alternative discharge ports.
The region’s largest container port, Jebel Ali in Dubai, temporarily suspended operations as a preventive measure after falling drone debris caused a fire, though activity has since resumed. Authorities closed the seaport in Bahrain until further notice and suspended crew changes, while Oman’s Port of Duqm also temporarily halted operations following a drone strike.
Red Sea Route Faces Renewed Disruption
The conflict’s impact extends beyond the Persian Gulf, with carriers again avoiding the Red Sea over fears that Iran backed Houthi militants in Yemen could resume attacks on merchant vessels.
Maersk announced the suspension of all Red Sea transits, having only recently resumed sending vessels through the Bab el Mandeb Strait after a period of reduced Houthi attacks last year. The company cited the deteriorating security situation in the Middle East region for its decision.
Hapag Lloyd similarly declared it would reroute its IMX container service connecting India, the Middle East and the Mediterranean via the Cape of Good Hope, though it will prioritize restoring the Suez route once safe passage is possible.
The rerouting around southern Africa will add thousands of nautical miles to voyages, absorbing vessel capacity and contributing to port congestion in Europe and Asia.
Oil Market Spikes, Analysists Warn of Prolonged Disruption
The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately one fifth of global oil consumption and one third of seaborne crude trade, making its effective closure a significant shock to energy markets.
Goldman Sachs analysts reported that oil markets have priced in an USD 18 per barrel risk premium over the weekend, equivalent to the market expecting a full closure of the strait for about six weeks. Brent crude futures opened more than 13 percent higher on Monday.
The investment bank warned that if liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows through the strait are halted for one month, European natural gas prices could spike 130 percent. Freight rates for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) from the Middle East to China had already tripled in the month before Friday’s close.
Clarksons Research data indicates that roughly 11 percent of global seaborne trade transits the Strait of Hormuz, including 34 percent of oil exports, 30 percent of LPG exports, 20 percent of LNG trade and 18 percent of chemicals trade.
Citi analysts maintained a baseline view that the conflict could de escalate within one to two weeks, but acknowledged that elevated global benchmark prices and steep backwardation are expected to persist until the strait is again passable.
JPMorgan and Barclays analysts warned that prices could spike to USD 100 to USD 130 per barrel if the conflict results in prolonged supply disruption.
The International Maritime Organization’s Secretary General Arsenio Dominguez expressed deep concern over reports of injured seafarers, stating that no attack on innocent mariners or civilian shipping is ever justified, and advising vessels to avoid transiting the affected region until conditions improve.
