Estimated reading time: 4 minutes
Ocean Disruption Spills Into Airfreight
Nearly six weeks after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, the consequences have moved well beyond container shipping and are now reshaping global air cargo markets, according to analysis released by Freightos.
The closure, which has reduced vessel traffic through the critical chokepoint to a trickle, initially sent shockwaves through ocean freight. Only a handful of ships transit the strait daily. Notably, a CMA CGM vessel became one of the first major European carrier ships to pass through under coordinated conditions, underscoring both the complexity of current operations and the limited reopening attempts under way.
As ocean supply chains remain constrained, the pressure has transferred upstream. Tightening fuel availability, reduced capacity among Middle Eastern carriers, and shifting trade flows are now driving air cargo pricing and forcing network adjustments across Asia, Europe, and the Middle East.
Middle Eastern Carriers Struggling to Rebuild Capacity
The operational impact on major Gulf hub carriers has been significant. Emirates SkyCargo is estimated to be operating at approximately 60 percent of its normal schedule. Etihad has capacity at around 40 percent. Qatar Airways Cargo is running at roughly 20 percent. These three carriers collectively anchor a large share of Asia to Europe and Europe to Middle East airfreight flows, and their reduced presence is constraining options for forwarders and shippers on both lanes.
Fuel availability has added a further layer of pressure. Reports have emerged of jet fuel shortages in parts of Asia, including flight cancellations in Vietnam and refuelling restrictions in South Korea and the Philippines. While those constraints have not yet triggered widespread network collapses, they signal how quickly regional bottlenecks can compound an already fragile operating environment.
Rates Spike, Then Begin to Level Off
The initial market response was a sharp repricing of air cargo capacity. Freightos Air Index data show South Asia to Europe rates up 62 percent compared to pre conflict levels. Southeast Asia to Europe rates have climbed 33 percent to around $4.50 per kilogram. Europe to Middle East rates have effectively doubled.
In recent weeks, however, signs of stabilisation have begun to emerge. China to Europe prices have eased approximately 7 percent over the past fortnight. Southeast Asia to Europe rates have pulled back around 10 percent from recent peaks. The moderation suggests that the initial surge in demand driven by supply chain repositioning has started to normalise as capacity gradually returns and shippers find alternative routing options.
For freight forwarders, the environment has shifted from acute volatility to sustained elevation. Rates remain well above pre conflict benchmarks, but the pace of change has slowed. The strategic question for logistics operators is no longer how high rates will go, but how long the current level can hold given uncertain progress on the underlying geopolitical situation.
Ocean and Air Markets Feed Each Other
The interaction between ocean and air freight markets remains a key dynamic. Container rates have surged despite weak underlying trade demand, with transpacific prices up nearly 40 percent since before the conflict and Asia to Europe rates rising around 20 percent. Under normal seasonal patterns, the period between Lunar New Year and peak season typically sees ocean freight soften. Higher fuel costs and constrained vessel movements have reversed that trend.
With only a limited number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and some requiring advance coordination or financial arrangements to do so, ocean supply chains remain under pressure. That pressure feeds directly into air freight demand as time sensitive cargo shifts mode, and into pricing as carriers and forwarders recalculate the cost of any available routing option.
The pace of capacity recovery among Gulf carriers, fuel availability across Asian transit points, and the outcome of ongoing diplomatic and commercial efforts to restore vessel movements through Hormuz will together determine how long elevated rates persist across both modes.
