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Yemen’s Houthi movement declared a total ban on Israeli maritime navigation in the Red Sea on June 8, 2026, reopening a second front in the Middle East shipping crisis just as the Strait of Hormuz blockade enters its fourth month.
The Houthis said in a statement that they had launched an attack on Israel and enacted a total ban on Israeli shipping in the Red Sea, warning of further escalation. The announcement came as Israel and Iran exchanged fresh strikes, snapping a fragile ceasefire that had held since April 8.
A Second Front Opens
The timing compounds an already severe disruption to global maritime trade. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz since the United States and Israel attacked it on February 28 has disrupted most oil and other energy exports from the Gulf, raising prices and causing a major energy shock. Saudi Arabia has responded by rerouting crude exports through the Red Sea port of Yanbu, making the corridor a critical lifeline.
Saudi Arabia has redirected more than 70% of its normal daily crude exports to Yanbu, meaning any sustained disruption at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait now threatens to amplify an energy shock that global markets are already struggling to absorb.
The Bab el-Mandeb, just 26 kilometres wide at its narrowest point, connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the wider Indian Ocean. Roughly 12% of global maritime trade passes through it. If both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb face simultaneous sustained disruption, a quarter of the world’s energy supply could be blocked.
Not a Full Blockade, But Already Deterring Traffic
Maritime risk analysts are drawing a careful distinction between rhetoric and operational reality. The announcement did not amount to a ban on all commercial shipping in the Red Sea and was instead “directed at vessels assessed by the Houthis as Israeli-affiliated,” British maritime risk management group Vanguard said in a note. “Given the broad wording used, vessels operating in the region should maintain heightened vigilance and conduct enhanced affiliation screening.”
Shipping market participants warn, however, that the distinction may offer little practical comfort. “The announcement will cause every ship to think carefully about the wisdom of making a transit,” one shipping source said, noting that the Houthis have targeted ships in the past with no direct link to Israel.
A Houthi source told Reuters that preventing Israeli ships from transiting the Red Sea was a first step, and that further escalation could lead the group to stop the passage of any ships bound for Israel as well as other measures.
Traffic through the strait is already deeply suppressed from earlier Houthi campaigns. Average monthly sailings in March 2026 reached 1,034 crossings, compared with over 2,000 in September 2023, according to analysis from Lloyd’s List Intelligence.
Carriers Already on Cape Routing
The commercial impact falls on an industry that has not recovered from prior disruptions. Major carriers including A.P. Moller-Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC, and CMA CGM announced operational adjustments in early March 2026, citing mounting safety concerns for crews, vessels, and cargo. Hapag-Lloyd said it decided to pause future Trans-Suez sailings through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, directly affecting its IMX service, which was diverted via the Cape of Good Hope.
Gemini, the joint service operated by Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, formally rescinded its AE12 and AE15 structural Suez return plans, and CMA CGM FAL 1 and FAL 3 services have reverted to Cape routing.
The detour around Africa generally adds around 14 days and significant costs to journeys between Asia and Europe. War risk surcharges introduced by major carriers in early March remain in force, adding further cost pressure for shippers.
Insurance and Escalation Risk
Emily Holland, director of the Eurasia program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, described the Houthi impact as “very disruptive,” noting: “It’s not as if the Houthis were firing missiles and drones at every ship; it’s more of a market signal that they can do it, and so then ships are reluctant to pass through the strait because they cannot get insurance to do that.”
Any deterioration in security at the Bab el-Mandeb can quickly affect freight rates, war risk insurance, vessel schedules, and the cost of moving goods between Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.
Elisabeth Kendall, a Middle East specialist and president of Girton College at Cambridge University, said that if the Red Sea strait is blocked, it would create a “nightmare scenario,” particularly given simultaneous restrictions at Hormuz.
With the Iran war reigniting and Houthi escalation threats on the table, carriers, insurers, and freight forwarders face the prospect of a prolonged dual chokepoint environment in which no single alternative route carries enough capacity to fully absorb diverted trade flows.
