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Antonov Airlines operates just four active AN-124 Ruslan freighters for the entire Western market, down from a combined fleet of roughly 20 commercially available aircraft before Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. With ocean freight in turmoil, no replacement aircraft on the horizon, and charter rates climbing past $100,000 per flight hour, the world’s most critical oversized cargo capability is now balanced on a razor’s edge.
The situation represents a structural vulnerability for industries ranging from energy and mining to defence and aerospace. Project cargo that cannot fit inside any other commercial aircraft, including industrial turbines, helicopters, satellite systems, locomotives, and mining machinery, depends almost entirely on a handful of ageing Soviet era airframes averaging more than 35 years old.
A Fleet Split in Two by War and Sanctions
The AN-124 Ruslan remains the world’s largest operational cargo aircraft available for commercial charter. Its cargo hold stretches 36.5 metres long, 6.4 metres wide, and 4.4 metres high. It can carry a maximum payload of up to 150 tonnes on upgraded variants. Front and rear loading ramps, a kneeling 24 wheel landing gear system, and onboard cranes capable of lifting up to 30 tonnes combined allow the aircraft to operate as a self contained logistics system requiring minimal ground infrastructure.
No other commercially available aircraft comes close. The Boeing 747 8F carries roughly 139 tonnes but lacks the roll on, roll off capability and the cavernous internal dimensions needed for truly oversized items. The American C 5M Super Galaxy matches the AN-124 in capability but is exclusively a United States Air Force asset, unavailable for commercial charter. The C 17A Globemaster III production line has already closed. The Airbus A400M, while a capable tactical airlifter, has nowhere near the AN-124’s payload or dimensional capacity.
Of approximately 55 AN-124s ever built, the last completed in 2004, roughly 15 remain in commercial service worldwide as of mid 2025. The Russian military operates approximately 13 more, but these are not available for international commercial operations. The fleet has been dramatically thinned by age, sanctions, war damage, and operator collapses.
The Russia Ukraine conflict has effectively split the remaining commercial fleet into two separate, non communicating pools. Russian operated AN-124s cannot serve Western customers or fly in Western airspace. Antonov Airlines’ fleet serves the Western market but cannot draw on Russian spare parts, engines, or maintenance expertise. Effective global availability has been roughly halved compared to the pre 2022 era, when Antonov Airlines and Volga-Dnepr Airlines jointly operated under partnership arrangements like Ruslan International and the SALIS consortium.
Antonov Airlines: The Western Market’s Sole Lifeline
Antonov Airlines, the division of the Ukrainian state owned Antonov Company, is now effectively the sole major provider of AN-124 charter services to Western customers. After the 2022 invasion forced it out of its home base at Hostomel Airport near Kyiv, the airline relocated operations to Leipzig/Halle Airport in Germany. Leipzig now serves as its hub for planning, maintenance, and flight operations.
The airline holds a fleet of seven AN-124 aircraft. Four are active and three are parked. The fleet’s average age is approximately 35.6 years.
A significant milestone was reached in July 2025, when Antonov successfully flew a modernised AN-124 (registration UR 82073, nicknamed “Be brave like Irpin”) out of Kyiv to Leipzig. The feat was remarkable given that Ukrainian airspace has been closed to civilian traffic since February 2022. The aircraft, built in 1994, underwent a multi year modernisation programme that began in 2021 and was interrupted by the invasion. Antonov engineers completed the upgrade in June 2025, replacing Russian manufactured components with Western and Ukrainian alternatives. The company described the flight as a symbol of the stability, professionalism, and unity of Ukrainian aircraft manufacturers.
Antonov Airlines continues to serve a broad client base spanning aerospace, defence, energy, humanitarian, industrial, automotive, and oil and gas sectors. Recent missions include an urgent delivery of gold mining equipment from Istanbul to Calgary for a mine in Northern British Columbia, conducted in partnership with Air Charter Service Canada, and the transport of three Boeing AH 64 Apache attack helicopters for the Indian Army.
The airline also remains contracted to NATO under the Strategic Airlift Interim Solution (SALIS) programme, providing heavy lift services for 18 member nations. The current SALIS agreement, signed in 2021, runs through 2026 and is widely expected to be extended.
Antonov is further investing in its Leipzig presence. A new maintenance hangar for AN-124 servicing is being constructed at Leipzig/Halle Airport by Antonov Logistics Salis GmbH, with completion targeted for 2027. Charter costs currently run between $70,000 and $100,000 per flight hour, reflecting the aircraft’s unique capabilities and the extremely limited supply.
Volga-Dnepr: A Giant Brought Down by Sanctions
Volga-Dnepr Airlines, once the world’s dominant AN-124 commercial operator with a fleet of 12 aircraft, has been devastated by the international sanctions regime imposed since 2022. The company now reportedly operates only three AN-124s out of a nominal fleet of eleven, alongside five Ilyushin IL 76 freighters. Four AN-124s remain stranded abroad, seized or impounded under sanctions, including one at Toronto Pearson Airport in Canada that has been the subject of a bitter legal dispute since February 2022. In May 2025, Volga-Dnepr publicly called Canada’s ongoing efforts to confiscate this aircraft a “pirate hijacking,” while Ukraine’s justice minister indicated the aircraft should ultimately be transferred to Ukraine.
The Volga-Dnepr Group’s broader business model has collapsed. Its subsidiary AirBridgeCargo (ABC), which operated a large fleet of Boeing 747 and 777 freighters on scheduled cargo routes between Asia and Europe, was forced to suspend all operations in March 2022 when Western sanctions and Bermuda’s revocation of airworthiness certificates made flying Boeing aircraft impossible. AirBridgeCargo no longer operates any aircraft as of early 2024, having returned remaining leased Boeing jets to their owners, some under court order, including a $400 million judgment by a United States court in favour of BOC Aviation.
In January 2026, EAS Group (Evraz Avia Service LLC), led by Evgeny Solodilin, the former chief executive of Red Wings Airlines and Zhukovsky Airport, formally acquired the heavily indebted group. The sale involved the transfer of three airlines (Volga-Dnepr, Atran, and AirBridgeCargo), along with Volga-Dnepr Technics and Volga-Dnepr Engineering. EAS now holds full control of AirBridgeCargo and Volga-Dnepr Moscow and a 67 percent stake in Atran.
Market experts remain sceptical about the financial viability of a relaunch given the sanctions environment. Aviation expert Oleg Panteleev noted that while Volga-Dnepr retains spare parts, experienced personnel, and a core fleet, the value of the group’s market leading position in oversized cargo has been “negated” by sanctions. Russian carriers face airspace bans from the United Kingdom, the European Union, the United States, and Canada, severely limiting any international operations. Under the new ownership, EAS intends to pivot toward Russian built aircraft such as the Tu 204, Tu 214, and IL 96 for domestic routes and flights to Eurasian Economic Union countries.
The Other Operators: Nearly Extinct
Maximus Air Cargo (UAE) formerly operated one AN-124. Its current active status remains uncertain, though the aircraft (registration UR ZYD) continues to appear in flight tracking data and was photographed at Shanghai Pudong airport in March 2026.
Libyan Arab Air Cargo had two AN-124s. One was seized by Ukraine in 2017; the other was destroyed on the ground by shelling at Mitiga International Airport in June 2019. It is effectively no longer an operator.
Over the decades, numerous other operators, including Air Foyle/HeavyLift (UK), Antonov AirTrack, Polet Airlines (Russia), Titan Cargo, TransCharter, Aviastar Airlines, and Ajax Cargo, had operated AN-124s in various capacities. All have since dissolved or ceased AN-124 operations. At its peak in September 2009, approximately 28 AN-124s were in airline service. The collapse of Polet Airlines in November 2014, following a legal dispute over unpaid lease payments and subsequent loss of its operating certificate, left Volga-Dnepr and Antonov Airlines as the only two remaining players, a duopoly that has now effectively become a near monopoly on the Western accessible side.
Why There Is No Replacement
The AN-124 is an aircraft without a successor, and the reasons are both technical and geopolitical.
Production ended in 2004. Two assembly lines existed: one at Aviastar SP in Ulyanovsk, Russia, and one at the Kyiv Aviation Plant AVIANT in Ukraine. Multiple attempts to restart production, including agreements in 2008 and orders from President Medvedev in 2009, were derailed first by the Russia Ukraine political fracture beginning in 2014, and then definitively by the 2022 war. Resuming production of a design now more than 40 years old is widely considered impractical. As Panteleev stated, it is “a pointless endeavour.”
Russia’s proposed replacements remain conceptual. The TsAGI research institute has been developing a conceptual successor dubbed “Slon” (Elephant), intended to carry up to 180 tonnes with a range of 7,000 kilometres. It remains in early wind tunnel testing and is years, likely decades, from entering service, if ever. The proposed Ilyushin IL 106, which would carry 80 to 120 tonnes, has been in development since the late 1980s, with a theoretical rollout timeline that has repeatedly slipped. Neither programme has produced a flyable prototype.
China has published designs for a strategic transport aircraft with a payload capacity of up to 120 tonnes and a range of 6,500 kilometres, but this remains a concept study with no confirmed development timeline.
The most promising Western concept is the WindRunner, being developed by a Colorado based company called Radia. Designed primarily to transport wind turbine blades and other oversized cargo, the WindRunner would offer more than 6,800 cubic metres of cargo space, roughly seven times the AN-124’s volume, and operate from semi prepared runways as short as 1,800 metres. Radia showcased the concept at the Singapore Air Show in January 2026 and responded to a U.S. Transportation Command request for information on aircraft capable of carrying oversized defence cargo. The company has also announced a collaboration with Maximus Air to explore the WindRunner’s potential for outsized air cargo missions. However, the aircraft has a projected first flight around 2030 and remains unbuilt. Radia plans to operate WindRunner through a transport as a service model rather than selling aircraft.
The JetZero blended wing body demonstrator being developed for the United States Air Force could eventually offer large internal volumes, but it is a technology demonstrator, not a production aircraft programme.
The bottom line is clear: when the current fleet of AN-124s reaches the end of its service life, there is currently no aircraft in production or advanced development that can replace its capabilities for commercial heavy and oversized cargo transport.
Ocean Freight Chaos Amplifies the AN-124’s Importance
The AN-124’s strategic relevance has been amplified by a sustained period of ocean freight disruption that began in late 2023 and continues through 2026.
Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, which started in late 2023, forced container vessels to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10 to 14 days to Asia Europe transit times and absorbing approximately 9 percent of global container capacity. While some carriers, including CMA CGM, Maersk, and Hapag-Lloyd, began cautiously testing returns to the Suez Canal in late 2025 and early 2026, this was violently disrupted in late February and early March 2026. A joint United States Israeli military operation against Iran, and Iran’s subsequent retaliation, triggered a complete shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping.
All major carriers suspended Strait of Hormuz transits. Those who had resumed Red Sea sailings reversed course back to the Cape of Good Hope route. Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz collapsed by more than 95 percent compared to pre conflict levels. The crisis has been described by analysts as the largest disruption to energy supply since the 1970s oil crises.
Ocean freight rates spiked sharply. Shanghai to Dubai rates surged from $1,800 per FEU to over $4,000 per FEU within days of the escalation. Transpacific container rates to the United States West Coast climbed roughly 40 percent above pre conflict levels. Emergency surcharges of up to $3,000 per FEU were applied across Gulf linked corridors. Oil prices surged, with analysts forecasting potential rises to $100 per barrel or higher if disruptions persist.
Air freight was equally disrupted. Middle East hub carriers, including Emirates SkyCargo, Qatar Airways Cargo, and Etihad Cargo, account for roughly 13 percent of global air cargo capacity and serve as key East West transfer points. Up to 35 to 40 percent of Asia Europe air cargo capacity was estimated to be impacted by the disruption.
For project cargo and oversized shipments, these disruptions are particularly acute. Unlike containerised goods that can be rerouted at higher cost and longer lead time, heavy lift and breakbulk cargo such as power generation equipment, mining machinery, oil and gas modules, wind energy components, and military equipment often depends on specific vessel types and routing. When ocean breakbulk services are disrupted, the AN-124 becomes one of very few alternatives capable of moving critical project cargo on emergency timelines.
Industries including automotive (just in time supply chains), energy (turbines, generators, drilling equipment), defence (helicopter and vehicle deliveries), aerospace (satellites, rocket components, aircraft engines), and mining (heavy equipment for remote sites) all rely on AN-124 charter availability as either a primary or backup logistics solution.
What Makes the AN-124 Irreplaceable
The AN-124’s unique capabilities extend far beyond raw payload. Its design incorporates features that make it a self sufficient logistics platform.
The entire nose section lifts upward, creating a 6.4 metre wide by 4.4 metre high opening. A separate rear cargo door with ramp enables simultaneous front and rear loading, or “drive through” capability for vehicles. The 24 wheel landing gear can lower the fuselage by up to 1.2 metres and adjust the floor angle, allowing self propelled vehicles to drive on and off without special ramps. Two overhead travelling cranes, rated at 10 tonnes each with 30 tonnes combined capacity, run the full length of the cargo hold. Items weighing up to 120 tonnes can be winched aboard.
The multi leg landing gear is designed for unpaved strips, making the AN-124 capable of operating from remote, underdeveloped airfields, exactly where major infrastructure, energy, and mining projects often need deliveries. The AN-124 can load and unload without depending on airport cargo handling equipment, a critical advantage at locations such as the Komo airfield in Papua New Guinea, which Volga-Dnepr helped design specifically for AN-124 operations in support of ExxonMobil’s PNG LNG project. That programme alone involved 88 cargo flights carrying over 6,000 tonnes in 2013.
Looking Ahead: A Narrowing Window
The AN-124 fleet will continue to age. With no production restart possible, Antonov Airlines is investing in modernisation, replacing Russian components with Western and Ukrainian parts, extending airframe life, and building permanent maintenance infrastructure at Leipzig. The SALIS NATO contract is expected to be renewed beyond 2026.
But the fundamental arithmetic is unforgiving. There are only a handful of these aircraft available for Western commercial charter. Demand is rising due to geopolitical disruptions that have thrown ocean freight into turmoil and strained air cargo capacity across the Middle East corridor. No replacement aircraft is in sight for at least a decade.
The AN-124 Ruslan is not just an aircraft. It is, for the foreseeable future, an irreplaceable piece of global logistics infrastructure, and one that the entire heavy lift and project cargo industry can ill afford to lose.
