MOL lifts annual profit forecast to $1.9 billion as container earnings surge

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Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL) has raised its net profit forecast for the financial year ending March 2027 to ¥300 billion ($1.90 billion), up 25% from its previous estimate, as stronger container shipping earnings lifted first-half results.

The Japanese shipping group’s revised outlook assumes navigation around the Strait of Hormuz will remain impossible through the end of the financial year. It also incorporates substantially higher marine fuel costs.

MOL reported net profit attributable to shareholders of ¥179.3 billion ($1.14 billion) for April through September 2026, compared with ¥116.2 billion ($737 million) a year earlier. Revenue reached ¥1.275 trillion ($8.09 billion), although a change in subsidiary reporting periods affects annual comparisons.

Dollar equivalents are indicative conversions using ¥157.58 per dollar, MOL’s revised full-year exchange rate assumption, rather than exchange rates prevailing in each reporting period.

The containership business generated first-half ordinary profit of ¥73.4 billion ($466 million), up from ¥23.9 billion ($152 million) a year earlier. The result exceeded MOL’s August forecast by ¥29.4 billion ($187 million). Ordinary profit includes nonoperating income and expenses.

MOL now expects annual ordinary profit from containerships of ¥111 billion ($704 million), compared with its previous forecast of ¥58 billion ($368 million).

That increase exceeds the ¥35 billion ($222 million) upgrade for the broader product transport segment, which also includes car carriers, terminals and logistics.

The presentation’s freight market data show higher container rate indices across several major export routes from China. The China Containerized Freight Index for Europe averaged 1,982 in the first half, compared with 1,581 a year earlier. The U.S. West Coast index averaged 1,298, against 901.

Across the group, MOL raised its annual ordinary profit forecast to ¥295 billion ($1.87 billion) from ¥225 billion ($1.43 billion). Projected operating profit increased to ¥151 billion ($958 million) from ¥135 billion ($857 million), while expected revenue rose to ¥2.37 trillion ($15.04 billion) from ¥2.23 trillion ($14.15 billion).

MOL increased its assumed second-half purchase price for very low sulphur fuel oil to $820 per tonne from $560. Its full-year assumption rose to $832 per tonne from $676.

The presentation states the Hormuz navigation assumption but does not provide a reopening timetable within the financial year.

Dry bulk ordinary profit reached ¥19.7 billion ($125 million) in the first half, compared with ¥0.1 billion ($635,000) a year earlier. MOL raised the business’s annual forecast to ¥39 billion ($247 million) from ¥25 billion ($159 million).

Energy business ordinary profit rose to ¥33.6 billion ($213 million) from ¥30.8 billion ($195 million). Chemical logistics ordinary profit fell to ¥12 billion ($76 million) from ¥14.4 billion ($91 million).

MOL changed the financial year-end of subsidiaries previously reporting on dates other than March 31. First-quarter results consequently include six months of earnings from those subsidiaries, while the annual forecast includes 15 months.

Car carrier loading volumes increased to 1.453 million vehicles in the first half from 1.432 million a year earlier. MOL forecasts full-year volumes of 2.961 million vehicles, compared with 2.874 million in the previous year.