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The conflict between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz is just one piece of a far broader strategic campaign to control the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints, with China’s energy supply lines as the ultimate target, according to geopolitical analysts and economists.
From Hormuz to Malacca: A Global Shipping Chessboard
While the Hormuz standoff has dominated headlines for weeks, Washington has quietly struck new military partnerships and exerted economic pressure across at least five major waterways since the start of 2025, reshaping the balance of power along routes that carry the bulk of global trade in energy, agriculture, and manufactured goods.
Thierry Wizman, a senior economic strategist at Macquarie Group, said the U.S. is systematically targeting the nodes of global supply chain transit that China depends on to sustain its economic position. The sea lanes in question stretch from the Panama Canal connecting the Atlantic and Pacific oceans to the Strait of Malacca, the world’s busiest shipping corridor linking the Indian and Pacific oceans, and the Strait of Gibraltar between Europe and Africa.
The strategy extends to Greenland, where melting ice sheets are opening new maritime passages of growing military and commercial value, including the GIUK (Greenland, Iceland, United Kingdom) gap, a vital naval chokepoint.
Nearly 20% of global flows of oil, liquefied natural gas, fertilizer, and petrochemicals pass through the Strait of Hormuz, much of which remains disrupted after Iran attacked tankers and bombed energy infrastructure belonging to Gulf state neighbors. The U.S. responded with a naval blockade of Iranian ports, where the situation remains deadlocked amid a series of evolving ceasefires.
Western Hemisphere Moves Draw First Blood
The White House has informally branded its Western Hemisphere strategy the “Donroe Doctrine,” a framework for expanding U.S. control over critical infrastructure closer to home.
In January, the Panamanian Supreme Court ruled that the contract held by Hong Kong based CK Hutchison Holdings to manage Panama Canal port operations was unconstitutional. The Panamanian government seized the ports in February, and a subsidiary of Danish group A.P. Moller Maersk has since assumed interim control, a shift that significantly reduced Chinese influence over the canal.
That followed the arrest of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in early January, which removed another major source of Chinese oil supply. Nearly all of Venezuela’s and Iran’s oil exports had been flowing to China, according to Dan Pickering, founder of Pickering Energy Partners.
“Behind everything that’s going on, there’s a China angle as well,” Pickering said, noting that the disruption to energy flows is a significant secondary impact woven into the broader strategy.
April Deals Extend Reach to Asia and Africa
In mid-April, the U.S. and Indonesia announced a new military partnership that gives Washington greater influence over the Strait of Malacca. China has publicly discussed the so-called “Malacca dilemma” for decades, given its heavy reliance on the route for energy and commodity imports.
Days later, the U.S. and Morocco unveiled a military cooperation roadmap covering the Strait of Gibraltar, the gateway between the Mediterranean and the Atlantic.
Wizman described both agreements as clear wins for the U.S., even if they carry more symbolic than operational weight for now.
Speaking at a CNBC conference last week, Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan warned that the Middle East conflict could prove to be a “dry run” for a future confrontation between the U.S. and China in the Pacific. Singapore, situated on the opposite side of the Malacca Strait from Indonesia, aims to remain neutral but fears being caught in the crossfire.
China Watches, Waits, and Stockpiles
Despite the pressure, China holds significant buffers. By U.S. estimates, China maintains approximately 1.4 billion barrels of crude oil in emergency reserves, roughly equal to the rest of the world’s strategic stocks combined. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve holds a distant second at about 400 million barrels.
China has also begun mothballing some petrochemical plants and reducing oil refining activity, while accelerating renewable energy deployment and electric vehicle manufacturing to reduce its long term dependence on imported hydrocarbons.
Meanwhile, Iran, Indonesia, Singapore, and Malaysia are all publicly debating the introduction of paid tolling systems on their respective straits, a development that could further reshape the cost structure of global shipping. Balakrishnan said he opposes such measures, supporting the principle of free passage for all vessels.
Wizman cautioned that Washington’s execution has been uneven, pointing to weakened NATO alliances and a lack of a clear endgame in the Middle East. Whether the campaign ultimately strengthens or undermines U.S. influence remains an open question, he said, but the fallback position is clear: building self-contained supply chains within the Western Hemisphere.
