Maritime Strategies International (MSI) forecasts a seismic shift in the maritime industry as the hydrogen economy evolves from theory to practice. The surge in clean energy growth is expected to propel ammonia and methanol exports, reshaping the landscape for shipping demand.
Ammonia Takes the Lead
According to MSI’s recent Foresight article, the next quarter-century is poised to witness a revolutionary transformation in ammonia trade. The rise of renewable ammonia is predicted to necessitate an additional 400 very large gas carriers, eclipsing the current fleet of 375 dedicated to transporting Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG). This shift underscores ammonia’s burgeoning role as a marine bunker fuel, a hydrogen carrier for power generation, and a pivotal industrial feedstock.
In contrast, the demand for methanol carriers, while substantial at approximately 215, pales in comparison. This is against the backdrop of an existing fleet of 280 vessels capable of handling methanol cargoes of 35,000 deadweight tons and above, as of the close of 2023.
Clean Energy’s Unyielding Ascent
Clean ammonia, both blue and green variants, is anticipated to outpace the existing grey trade, reaching a staggering 30 million tonnes by 2030 and possibly exceeding 300 million tonnes by 2050. This profound shift marks a departure from the industry’s historical focus on fertilizer production towards an energy market-driven future.
The clean methanol production is also on the rise, fueled by agreements for its use in maritime fuel, chemical feedstock, and broader hydrogen economy applications. By 2050, global clean methanol trade is projected to reach 100 million tonnes, constituting one-third of clean ammonia trade.
Challenges and Investments
Despite the optimistic projections, Stuart Nicoll, Director at MSI, acknowledges the challenges ahead. “The prospects for hydrogen trade are developing rapidly but are still theoretical,” he notes. Major infrastructural challenges remain, and significant trade hinges on overcoming these obstacles. Yet, investments are flowing into the sector, intergovernmental agreements are being inked, and Memoranda of Understanding for trade are proliferating.
In conclusion, the maritime industry stands on the cusp of a clean energy revolution. Ammonia and methanol, once confined to specific industrial uses, are now at the forefront of powering a low-carbon future. As MSI charts the trajectory of this transformative journey, it opens the door to a greener, more sustainable era for global shipping.
