In a remarkable surge that is set to reshape the maritime landscape, new records have been shattered in the realm of container ship deliveries. The maritime industry has witnessed an astonishing influx of new container ships during the first seven months of this year, a feat that has propelled the container fleet capacity to unprecedented heights, with a notable increase of 4.3%. This pivotal shift in the industry’s dynamics comes at a pivotal juncture when prevailing trade growth in several crucial regions is experiencing a downturn, and the global economic growth trajectory for the foreseeable future appears to be on a fragile course.
Niels Rasmussen, the accomplished Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, unveils these groundbreaking statistics. He reveals, “Deliveries of new container ships during the first seven months of the year reached a new record high of 1.2 million TEU in 2023, surpassing the previous record by an impressive 0.2 million TEU. A rather remarkable outcome given the relatively low recycling rate of ships, resulting in an overall fleet capacity surge of 4.3% since the inception of this year.”
A deeper analysis of the current landscape reveals intriguing facets. While the pace of new ship contracts has somewhat decelerated since its monumental peak in 2021, it still maintains a strikingly robust momentum, remaining twice as high as the levels observed throughout the 2010s. Remarkably, the contracted capacity of 1.3 million TEU accumulated thus far this year is merely a slender margin of 3,000 TEU away from the monumental record set at 7.6 million TEU in March 2023.
Even more remarkably, projections paint a picture of sustained growth. The staggering order book, teeming with impending deliveries, suggests an extraordinary trend where ship deliveries are poised to consecutively surpass the previous full-year record of 1.7 million TEU for three consecutive years. Anticipated delivery timelines indicate an impressive cascade, with approximately 2.4, 2.9, and 1.9 million TEU expected to be delivered in 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively.
An integral aspect of this dynamic transformation is the anticipated increase in ship recycling. As the industry tilts towards greater environmental consciousness, the adoption of more energy-efficient vessels is poised to outpace their less efficient counterparts, a strategy aimed at curbing greenhouse gas emissions. Niels Rasmussen underscores this shift, affirming, “Despite the phased-out recycling of older vessels, the fleet is on a trajectory to expand by approximately 4.5 million TEU between early 2023 and early 2025, which equates to an astonishing 18% surge in fleet capacity.”
This surge in capacity, however, unfolds against a backdrop of trade growth fluctuations. Container Trades Statistics reveal a 4.3% dip in global container volumes during the first half of 2023, compared to the previous year, but ending a mere 0.2% above levels recorded in the first half of 2019. Notably, head-haul and regional trade lanes experienced a collective 4.9% year-on-year drop, yet managing to maintain a 3.1% uptick when compared to 2019.
The second quarter, however, showcased resilience in these crucial trade lanes, with volumes demonstrating a more tempered decline of 2.0% year-on-year and remarkably, a substantial 5.3% increase compared to 2019.
As the market grapples with the intricate balance of time charter and freight rates, it becomes apparent that the notable growth in head-haul and regional trade volumes, a striking 5.3% compared to Q2 2019, stands in stark contrast to the meteoric 17% expansion in fleet capacity. This dissonance underscores the mounting challenge for ship owners and operators, accentuating the persistent supply-side growth.
In essence, the maritime realm stands on the cusp of transformative changes, with burgeoning ship deliveries forging ahead, underpinned by a commitment to sustainability, while the market navigates through trade uncertainties and the ever-evolving dynamics of global economic growth.
(Source: BIMCO)
